2024 Tour De France Polka Dot Jersey Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, June 29, the Tour de France starts its grueling three-week trek across Italy and France to crown the race’s Yellow Jersey winner. In addition to the maillot jaune, the Tour de France also has three other jersey competitions including the second oldest classification – the King of the Mountains. 

Last year, Giulio Ciccone won his first King of the Mountains competition by 17 points over second place Felix Gall. The Italian cyclist wore the Polka Dot jersey with pride and returns this year looking to claim this competition for the second straight Tour. 

Let’s examine the latest cycling odds, share some tips on how to bet on the Tour de France, and make our 2024 Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey predictions.  

What is the Polka Dot Jersey in the Tour de France?

As mentioned, the Tour de France has four major jersey competitions. The overall race leader wins the Yellow Jersey. The Green Jersey goes to the cyclist, usually a sprinter, with the most stage points. The White Jersey goes to the best young rider. And, lastly, the Polka Dot Jersey goes to the cyclist who wins the King of the Mountains competition. 

The Polka Dot jersey was introduced into the Tour in 1975, but the King of the Mountains classification has been around since 1933. 

Mountain points are earned by the riders who ascend the summits first. The following is a breakdown of the mountain points earned based on the category of the climb:

• HC (hors categorie): 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 points 
• 1^st Category: 10, 8, 6, 7, 5, 1 point 
• 2^nd Category: 5, 3, 2 points
• 3^rd Category: 2, 1 point
• 4^th Category: 1 point

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

2023 Polka Dot Jersey Winner

1. Giulio Ciccone: 106 points
2. Felix Gall: 92 points
3. Jonas Vingegaard: 89 points
4. Neilson Powless: 58 points
5. Tadej Pogacar: 55 points

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Polka Dot Jersey competition:

Tadej Pogacar+350

Currently, Tadej Pogacar is the only active cyclist with at least two Polka Dot Jerseys as he won the King of the Mountains competition in 2020 and 2021. Those were also the two years that he won the Tour de France’s Yellow Jersey. He won the White Jersey those years as well, but would go on to win that competition four consecutive years (2020-2023).  

Pogacar will focus on winning his third Tour de France, but to do so he might have to win a few mountain stages. And, if he does that, then the sport’s top all-around cyclist could pick up his third Polka Dot Jersey. 

If anyone is doubting his form heading into the Tour, just look at how he smashed the field in the Giro d’Italia (with six stage wins) and won every bike race he’s competed in this season to date. This is a man on a mission and it’s hard to imagine anyone beating him. Even though Ciccone is racing for the KOTM points, Pogacar’s quest for Yellow could have him dominate the dots once again. 

Giulio Ciccone+400

The Italian rider happened to find himself in the Polka Dot jersey last year, which he then turned his full attention towards keeping it once the Tour reached the Alps. Ciccone is a talented climber, but not on the level of Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard. 

With that said, he does have the benefit of Lidl-Trek supporting his efforts to go after another KOTM competition. He, along with Mads Pedersen, are free to chase their individual aspirations and they both will be dangerous in their quests. 

On the season, Ciccone finished 7^th in the Italian road race championships. Prior to that, he was 7^th in the Mountains Classification for the Criterium du Dauphine where he had four Top 4 finishes on individual stages. Despite being sick, recovering from injuries and dealing with other personal matters, Ciccone appears to be in good form for this year’s Tour. 

Could we see the Italian in the Polka Dots for a second straight year?

Jonas Vingegaard +800

The same arguments laid out above for Pogacar, can be applied to Vingegaard. However, there is one caveat and that’s the reigning Tour de France champ’s health. Vingegaard is recovering from a brutal crash in the spring that led to a punctured lung. Nobody is sure how his conditioning will be for this three-week Grand Tour. 

If Vingegaard is in top form then he will not only contend for the Tour de France win, but he will also clean up on some of the mountain stages which could lead to a Polka Dot Jersey win. Vingegaard won this competition in 2022, when he also captured his first Tour de France victory. 

It’s either going to be a glorious third straight victory or Vingegaard is going to suffer badly from his previous injuries and poor conditioning. Either way, the KOTM isn’t going to be his priority. It would be a byproduct of his chase for Yellow.

Richard Carapaz +1200

Richard Carapaz is the team leader for EF Education-EasyPost. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a crash at the Tour de Suisse that has left him struggling to get back to top form:

With his General Classification aspirations seemingly gone before the Tour has even started, this would leave Carapaz free to pursue stage wins. And, the best opportunities for him would be in the mountains where he’s shined before. 

Carapaz showed off his mountain expertise when he won the KOTM competition in the 2022 Vuelta. He also finished 2^nd in the Polka Dot jersey competition in 2020. In fact, in seven Grand Tour appearances, Carapaz has finished in the Top 5 for the KOTM Classification. 

With little-to-no GC aspirations, and a resume of solid climbing, Carapaz could sneak into the KOTM standings and go for a Polka Dot Jersey win.

Best Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Betting Value

Derek Gee (+2000) is my choice for the best betting value in the Polka Dot Jersey competition. If you don’t know who he is, then go back and watch the Criterium du Dauphine earlier in June because Gee declared that he’s ready to be a winner in this sport. 

The 26-year-old finished 3^rd at the Dauphine and even won Stage 3 of this race. He also had five Top 6 finishes in the eight stages. None more impressive than his sixth-place result in the individual time trial, which surprised most pundits and fans. 

This will be Gee’s first ever Tour de France appearance. He does have one Grand Tour race under his belt and that was the 2023 Giro d’Italia where he finished 22^nd overall. However, he also finished 2^nd in the KOTM Classification and 2^nd in the Points Classification. Those are two solid results for a Canadian looking to have success in France this summer. 

Gee will try to stick with the GC favorites through the mountains, but I expect him to lose time to guys like Pogacar, Vingegaard (if health), and Primoz Roglic. 

However, remaining high in the GC standings could also mean that he’s picked up some KOTM points along the way. And, if the Canadian is near the top of the Polka Dot Jersey standings, then you could possibly see him ride to win the KOTM just like Ciccone did last year. 

The Top Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Longshot

Speaking of Primoz Roglic (+3300), he’s an easy longshot choice for this competition. Currently, Roglic is one of the race favorites to win the Yellow Jersey. 

The talented cyclist didn’t compete in the Tour last year as he chose to race in the Giro and Vuelta instead. That’s also partly due to the fact that his teammate Vingegaard was clearly the best TDF rider. 

His plans turned out well as Roglic won the 2023 Giro and finished 3^rd in the Vuelta behind his teammates Vingegaard and winner Sepp Kuss. However, it also meant that Roglic’s time was up with Visma and he bolted for a new squad.

Roglic signed with Bora-Hangrohe where he’s the team leader and has a strong squad supporting him in the Tour this year. 

In the 2020 Tour de France, Roglic was well on his way to winning the Yellow Jersey. Unfortunately, a young Pogacar rode an amazing time trial and stole the victory. Roglic finished second that year and also 3^rd in the KOTM standings. For his career, Roglic has eight Top 6 finishes in the KOTM Classifications of Grand Tours. 

This year, for Roglic to have a realistic chance at winning the Tour, he’s going to need to win mountain stages and possibly even be the first rider over a few summits. This scenario means more mountain points and a healthy chance at winning the Polka Dot Jersey. 

Tour de France King of the Mountains Head To Head Matchups

The following Tour de France prop bets are courtesy of Bet365 and they require you to pick which cyclist will finish higher in the King of the Mountains standings at the end of this Grand Tour: 

Carlos Rodriguez (-250) vs. Enric Mas (+175)

Enric Mas returns for another Tour de France, the 6^th of his career. Unfortunately, things have seemingly been on a downtrend for the once clear-cut leader of Movistar Team.

Mas has had a subpar 2024 season to date, with no victories and only a 5^th in the Volta a Catalunya as his best result. For a cyclist who is supposed to be a talented climber, this year has definitely been a disappointment. 

A head-to-head matchup against Carlos Rodriguez in the KOTM competition is an unfair battle for Mas. Rodriguez will be a Top 5 GC rider this year, just like in the 2023 Tour de France. Furthermore, he will have the support of INEOS as their team leader. 

I expect Rodriguez to challenge for a podium finish and racing well in the mountains, which could translate into KOTM points. Mas is going to crack in the mountains or be a non-factor. 

TDF Bet: Carlos Rodriguez (-250)

Egan Bernal (+150) vs. Simon Yates (-200)

With Rodriguez being the leader for INEOS Grenadiers, that means Egan Bernal will be riding in a supporting role. It’s been a few years since Bernal has been a real contender in any Grand Tour or major stage race. I don’t see things changing now. In fact, I expect him to be the 4^th best rider on INEOS. 

For Simon Yates, first he’s in the Tour, then he’s out. Then he’s back in again. The leader of Team Jayco AlUla couldn’t make up their minds. With that said, Yates is also rumored to be leaving the team after this season and possibly heading to Visma-Lease a Bike. 

He clearly sees how his brother Adam Yates left INEOS Grenadiers to ride alongside Pogacar for UAE and has had a lot of success. It would be embarrassing if Visma can land someone the caliber of Simon Yates. 

As for the 2024 Tour de France, and this prop bet, take Yates to crush Bernal. Yates is the leader of his team and capable of hanging in the mountains with the best climbers. Bernal has never recovered from previous injuries and doesn’t have the form he did when winning the 2019 Tour de France or the 2021 Giro d’Italia. 

TDF Bet: Simon Yates -200

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Predictions 

As cool as it would be to see Gee or Ciccone win this King of the Mountains Classification at the 2024 Tour de France, I believe Pogacar will win the Polka Dot Jersey for the third time in his career. With Vingegaard recovering, and yet to show his best form since the crash, Pogacar is clearly the best Grand Tour rider in the sport. 

After dominating the 2024 Giro with six stage wins, I see Pogacar being very aggressive to put time on his GC rivals and possibly winning three stages or more. I’m penciling him in to win at least one of the mountain stages, which will give him a vast lead in the KOTM competition.

Due to his chase for the Yellow Jersey, Pogacar is going to win the Polka Dot Jersey for the third time in five years. 

TDF Bet: Tadej Pogacar +350

Previous Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Winners

Richard Virenque holds the record for the most Polka Dot jerseys with seven. Federico Bahamontes and Lucien Van Impe are both tied with six. Virenque also holds the record for most days in the Polka Dot jersey at 96. The following is a list of the previous Tour de France King of the Mountains Winners: