2024 Tour Championship Odds and Predictions

It all comes down to this. The 2024 PGA season will come to a close this weekend with the Tour Championship. $25 million will be up for grabs when the 30 best players on the tour convene in Atlanta to square off at East Lake Golf Club.

This course has undergone quite a few transformations since it opened in 1908. The most recent renovation – which got underway after last year’s Tour Championship – will present new challenges for the players. Course architect Andrew Green made a number of alterations, including tweaks to hole lengths and completely overhauling certain hazards. So, nobody in the field will have an experience edge, as this will be a new test for all 30 players in the competition.

Of course, you can wager on how the Tour Championship will play out at golf betting sites. What are the best ways to bet on the 2024 Tour Championship? Let’s dive right in.

2024 Tour Championship Odds

• Odds to Win: +115
• Odds to Finish Top 5: -900
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -4000

Scottie Scheffler enters the 2024 Tour Championship as the massive favorite to win. His odds of +115 to win indicate that he’s expected to dominate the field, as he has throughout much of the season. With such short odds, betting on him to win doesn’t offer much in terms of value unless you’re confident he will take the trophy. We almost never see a single golfer with odds as short as +115 to win a tournament, but let’s not forget this is just a 30-player field.

Scheffler has been the best player in the world all year, and this will be a season to remember. The Texas native has 6 wins on tour this season, including a first-ever win at The Masters back in April. Scheffler also took home the gold medal in men’s golf at the Olympics in Paris earlier this month.

As the leader in FedEx Cup points, Scheffler will begin the Tour Championship with a 2-stroke lead on the field. This hasn’t benefited him at this event in the past, however, as this will be the third year in a row Scheffler will start with a leg up on the competition. Scheffler began at -10 last year but only finished 1-under in his actual round to finish tied for 6th. Two years ago, Scheffler blew a 6-stroke lead by going 3 over par in his final round to lose to Rory McIlroy by a single stroke. Perhaps the course changes will do him some favors this time around.

For a more conservative yet still profitable bet, consider Scheffler to finish in the top 5 at -900. Although the odds are steep, this reflects his near-guaranteed placement among the leaders. Scheffler’s game has been incredibly consistent, and the early lead guarantees he’ll finish near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.

For an even safer bet, Scheffler’s -4000 odds to finish in the top 10 are essentially a lock, though the payout is minimal. If you prefer security over higher returns, this could be a viable option.

Xander Schauffele

• Odds to Win: +230
• Odds to Finish Top 5: -500
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -2000

Xander Schauffele has been the 2nd-best player on the PGA Tour this year. His only 2 victories came at majors, as he took home both the PGA Championship and The Open. Those were also Schauffele’s first 2 career major championships.

The American will start the tournament at 8-under, which puts him alone 2 strokes behind Scheffler. This is familiar territory for Schauffele, who’s finished as the runner-up in the Tour Championship on 3 separate occasions in his career. This will be his best starting position in 8 starts here, however.

Despite never having won the Tour Championship, he’s consistently dominated the course. Schaffele has a cumulative score of 85-under at East Lake Golf Club since 2017. The next-best score in that same span belongs to Justin Thomas at a distant 55-under par.

Schauffele’s odds of +230 to win reflect his strong form and ability to contend in nearly every tournament he enters. Schauffele has proven himself at East Lake before, making him a solid bet for those looking for a mix of risk and potential payout.

There’s also some value to be found in his top 5 finish odds at -500. This offers a safer bet while still providing some return. Schauffele thrives under the conditions of the Tour Championship, making this wager more appealing than betting on him outright to win.

His top 10 odds at -2000 offer little risk and could serve as a foundation for a parlay if you’re looking to add safety to your betting strategy.

Rory McIlroy

• Odds to Win: +1800
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +135
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -250

Rory McIlroy, a seasoned veteran with multiple wins at the Tour Championship, comes into the tournament with odds of +1800 to win, providing significant value for those looking for a longer-shot bet. While his performance hasn’t been as consistent as Scheffler’s or Schauffele’s in 2024, but McIlroy has a history of turning it on at East Lake.

McIlroy won this tourney back in 2022. He’s finished in the top-8 in 6 of his last 7 tries at East Lake. He’ll start this tournament at 4-under, which is the same score he started with when he ultimately chased down Scheffler to win it back in 2022.

McIlroy is going on a decade without a major title, but winning a third straight Tour Championship wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. However, we’ll see if the course alterations hurt him more than most considering how terrific he’s fared here over the years.

Rory’s +1800 odds to win are awful tempting given his track record here, but he hasn’t been in great form all season. A top-5 finish at +135 could be the perfect middle-ground bet for those looking to back McIlroy without going all in on an outright victory. He’s proven time and again that he has the skills and experience to finish high, making this a smart value pick.

His top 10 finish odds at -250 are more conservative but still present decent value considering McIlroy’s pedigree. If you’re looking for a safer bet with a modest return, this could be your play.

Ludvig Åberg

• Odds to Win: +1800
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +140
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -250

Ludvig Åberg is one of the more exciting young talents on tour. His odds of +1800 to win indicate that he’s not among the absolute favorites, but he should still be in the running. At such long odds, the Swede makes for an alluring wager to pull off the upset.

That Åberg is a rookie on tour and starting at 5-under shouldn’t be overlooked. He finished tied for 2nd at last week’s BMW Championship, so the bright lights of the FedEx Cup Playoffs haven’t affected him in the least to this point. He also finished second at The Masters, so pressure isn’t likely to be a factor despite his lack of experience.

This will be his first start at East Lake. Considering nobody has much experience at this course thanks to the aforementioned changes, he’s not necessarily starting with a disadvantage. I think there’s merit to taking a shot on Åberg at these +1800 odds to win outright.

However, the safer option would be betting on Åberg to finish in the top 5 at +140. This offers a positive return with a slightly lower risk compared to betting on him outright. Åberg’s recent performances suggest he has the potential to break into the upper echelons of the leaderboard.

For those looking to hedge their bets, a top-10 finish at -250 presents a lower-risk opportunity to back a young star without the need for him to win or even finish top 5.

Hideki Matsuyama

• Odds to Win: +1100
• Odds to Finish Top 5: -105
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -400

Hideki Matsuyama presents a solid option for bettors at +1100 to win. He’s consistently shown his ability to compete with the top players, and his game is well-rounded enough to handle the challenges posed by East Lake. While betting on him to win carries some risk, the reward could be significant for those willing to take the chance.

There’s extra risk here given Matsuyama’s health, though. After winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship a couple of weeks ago, he was forced to withdraw from last week’s BMW Championship prior to the 2nd round with lower back soreness. He’s currently expected to play this week in Atlanta, but back soreness isn’t generally something that goes away quickly.

Matsuyama’s top 5 odds at -105 strike a nice balance between risk and reward. Given his strong form and consistent performance in high-stakes tournaments, this could be a solid bet for those seeking better value than the outright win.

At -400 for a top-10 finish, Matsuyama offers a relatively safe option. This could be a great addition to a parlay or a standalone bet for those looking to secure a lower-risk return.

Tony Finau

• Odds to Win: +8000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +500
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +140

Tony Finau enters the Tour Championship with long odds at +8000 to win. While his chances of pulling off the victory are slim, Finau has occasionally risen to the occasion in his career. He’s a potential value pick for those looking for a massive payout. However, the likelihood of him winning may be low, so consider this a high-risk, high-reward bet.

Finau has 8 top-20 finishes in his last 9 starts on the tour, with the lone exception being at The Open where he missed the cut entirely. This will be his 8th straight appearance at the Tour Championship, yet he hasn’t finished higher than 7th in any of his first 7 starts. Finau has an average finish of 12th at this course all-time, though he slumped to 20th last season with a score of 4-under par.

Finau’s top 5 finish odds at +500 provide better value for a less risky wager than punting on him to win it at +8000. Finau’s game often puts him in contention, and while he may not always come out on top, he frequently finishes in the upper echelon of leaderboards.

A top-10 finish at +140 offers decent value and is likely a more secure bet for Finau. This could be a smart play for those who believe he will perform well without necessarily winning the tournament.

Viktor Hovland

• Odds to Win: +6000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +400
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +120

Viktor Hovland is one of the more intriguing bets for this tournament. His odds of +6000 to win make him a longshot, but his recent form and competitive nature suggest that he shouldn’t be counted out entirely. If you’re looking for a sleeper pick with significant upside, Hovland could be worth a small wager to win this.

Hovland took home a nifty $18 million check after winning the FedEx Cup last season, but he’s struggled to replicate that form so far in 2024. He’s one of the many players who’s enjoyed success at East Lake over the years, and he’s already said publicly that he’s disappointed to see the old layout go. Whether he’ll enjoy similar results now that the course has gotten a facelift obviously remains to be seen.

His top 5 finish odds at +400 are much more appealing for those who want to take a safer route while still chasing a big return. Hovland has shown that he can contend in big tournaments, so this bet offers strong value.

Finally, Hovland’s +120 odds to finish in the top 10 provide a relatively low-risk option for those looking to back a rising star. This could be a solid bet if you’re confident in his ability to stay near the top of the leaderboard.

Patrick Cantlay

• Odds to Win: +3500
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +260
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -125

Patrick Cantlay has the game and mental fortitude to be a contender in the 2024 Tour Championship. His odds of +3500 to win indicate that he’s not considered a top favorite, but Cantlay has a proven ability to win big events, making him an intriguing longshot bet. If he finds his rhythm at East Lake, these odds could pay off big time.

Cantlay loved the old course here, as evidenced by his excellent 67.67 scoring average over his last 12 rounds at East Lake. He won the Tour Championship back in 2021, finished 7th in 2022, and took home a solo 5th-place finish a season ago.

The +260 odds for a top-5 finish present decent value for those looking to hedge against the risk of him winning outright. Cantlay’s consistency on difficult courses and his ability to grind out rounds make him a strong candidate to crack the top 5.

At -125 for a top-10 finish, Cantlay offers one of the more balanced risk-to-reward propositions. He’s proven that he can stay competitive in large fields, and these odds reflect a reasonable expectation that he will be among the leaders by tournament’s end.

Collin Morikawa

• Odds to Win: +3000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +220
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -150

Collin Morikawa is one of the brightest young stars in golf, and his odds of +3000 to win the 2024 Tour Championship offer enticing value for those who believe in his major-winning pedigree. Morikawa has the game to win at East Lake, and if he finds his putting stroke, he could be in contention for the title. He’ll start at 4-under par.

Morikawa was tied for the lead after a 9-under finish in the first round last year. He struggled through the weekend, however, and ultimately settled for a tie for 6th. I think you can argue he’s going a little undervalued to win this thing outright at +3000 considering how well he’s played in big-time events over the past couple of years.

His odds of +220 for a top-5 finish strike a nice balance between risk and reward. Morikawa’s ball-striking ability has often placed him in the top tier of golfers, and this bet offers a good return for a relatively safe pick.

For those looking for a conservative play, his -150 odds to finish in the top 10 are quite appealing. Morikawa has consistently placed well in big tournaments, making this a solid option for bettors who believe he’ll perform well but aren’t ready to gamble on a victory.

Sam Burns

• Odds to Win: +3000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +250
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -140

Sam Burns has quietly had an impressive year on the PGA Tour, and his odds of +3000 to win suggest that he’s a potential dark horse. Burns has proven he can win against top competition, and if he can maintain his form, these odds present an opportunity for a sizable payout.

Mr. Burns – like Morikawa and McIlroy – will start at 4-under for this tournament. He’s in impressive form after taking home a 5th-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and finishing as the runner-up last week in Colorado at the BMW Championship. He and Schauffele are the on players to have carded top-10 finishes in both competitions.

His +250 odds to finish in the top 5 offer better value for bettors seeking a safer option. Burns has shown he can hang with the best, and if his putter gets hot, he could easily find himself in the top 5.

Burns’ -140 odds to finish in the top 10 provide decent value. He’s consistently made cuts and finished high this season, making this a safer play for bettors who want to back a consistent performer.

Keegan Bradley

• Odds to Win: +3500
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +260
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -140

Keegan Bradley is an intriguing pick for the 2024 Tour Championship, with odds of +3500 to win. Bradley has a history of playing well in big tournaments, and while he’s not a heavy favorite, his strong ball-striking and competitive nature could make him a surprise contender at East Lake.

Bradley came out of nowhere to win last week at the BMW Championship, which improved his odds considerably heading into the last event of the year. He was the final player to qualify for the field last week, so his victory was a shock, to say the least. While 2 of the last 3 BMW Championship winners have gone on to win the FedEx Cup, expecting Bradley to follow suit may be too much to ask.

The +260 odds for a top-5 finish offer great value for a player of Bradley’s caliber. His recent form suggests that he could very well push for a high finish, and this bet strikes a nice balance between risk and potential return.

For those looking for a lower-risk bet, Bradley’s -140 odds to finish in the top 10 provide a solid option. He’s a seasoned veteran who knows how to perform under pressure, making this a more secure pick for bettors looking to back a consistent player.

Shane Lowry

• Odds to Win: +15000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +850
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +225

Shane Lowry may not be one of the favorites, but his odds of +15000 to win the Tour Championship could make him an appealing longshot. Lowry has shown flashes of brilliance this season, and while he’s not a safe bet to win outright, these odds provide a potentially huge payout for those willing to take a gamble.

Lowry is in his 10th year on the tour, yet this will be just his first-ever appearance at the Tour Championship. That’s hard to believe given the 37-year-old’s staying power, but it is what it is. Lowry came close to lifting a 2nd career Claret Jug last month at The Open, so he’s capable of defying the odds.

A top-5 finish at +850 offers great value for bettors who believe Lowry can deliver on the big stage without needing to win. His ability to navigate difficult courses and play well in challenging conditions makes him a sleeper pick for a high finish.

His +225 odds to finish in the top 10 present a more reasonable option for bettors looking to hedge their bets. Lowry is a proven performer in major tournaments, and while he may not win, a top-10 finish is certainly within reach.

Tommy Fleetwood

• Odds to Win: +10000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +550
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +160

Tommy Fleetwood is still chasing his first PGA Tour victory at the age of 33, but he’s been knocking on the door for years. His +10000 odds to win the Tour Championship make him a longshot, but Fleetwood’s all-around game and experience in big tournaments make this a viable risk-reward play.

Despite having zero victories on the PGA Tour, Fleetwood is still in solid form. He missed the cut at The Open last month, but wound up finishing tied for 5th last week. Fleetwood finished 6th in this very event last year, as well. He’ll start at 1-under.

His +550 odds to finish in the top 5 present good value for those who believe he can contend but aren’t ready to bet on him winning outright. Fleetwood has a habit of hanging around the leaderboard, and these odds offer a great balance of risk and reward.

Fleetwood’s top 10 finish odds at +160 are appealing for bettors looking for a safer wager. He’s consistently been one of the most reliable golfers in big tournaments, and this bet provides a reasonable expectation of a solid finish.

2024 Tour Championship Prediction

While potential payouts for picking the winner of the Tour Championship aren’t as high as other events thanks to the smaller 30-man field, you also have a better chance of actually hitting your wager. It’s crazy to see Scheffler as such a heavy favorite at +115, but it’s also hard to argue given his incredible form so far this season. 

With an eye on more upside, I like the value on Schauffele to win the Tour Championship at +230. Schauffele has enjoyed a remarkable season of his own, and his impressive recent form gives me faith in his chances of overtaking Scheffler by the end of the weekend. Schauffele starting the tournament at 8-under par won’t hurt, either.