2024 Tour de France Odds, Predictions, and Yellow Jersey Winner

On Saturday, June 29, 2024, the 111^th edition of the Tour de France gets underway with the Grand Depart from Florence, Italy. Due to the Paris Olympic Games, race organizers had to make some major adjustments to this year’s Tour de France route. Not only will this Grand Tour begin in Italy for the first time, but it will also finish in Nice instead of Paris for the first time.

Tadej Pogacar enters this year’s race as the odds-on favorite. The two-time defending champion, Jonas Vingegaard, is the next betting favorite but is listed behind Pogacar with the oddsmakers due to injuries suffered in a crash. Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel round out the four main contenders for the yellow jersey competition.

Let’s take a look at the latest Tour de France odds, examine how to bet on the Tour de France, and make our 2024 Tour de France predictions for the yellow jersey, also known as the maillot jaune.

Tour de France Jerseys

Each year, the Tour de France has four primary jersey competitions. There are also secondary classifications including Team and Most Aggressive Rider of the stage. However, no jerseys are awarded for these. Jersey numbers will be highlighted in a different color to denote these accomplishments.

The following is a breakdown of the Tour de France jerseys. Additionally, we’ll have our betting analysis for each jersey once the Tour de France odds are available.

• Yellow Jersey (General Classification): As mentioned above, the yellow jersey is the competition that decides who wins the overall Grand Tour race based on the fastest cumulative time for all 21 stages.
• Green Jersey (Points Classification): Starting in 1953, this jersey competition is awarded to the cyclist with the most points. Riders can earn points based on high finishes for stages or winning intermediate sprints. This jersey is also commonly referred to as the sprinter’s competition.
• Polka dot Jersey (Mountains Classification): This classification began in 1933, but it wasn’t until 1975 that the polka dot jersey was introduced. The mountain classification is a competition for riders who gain the most points by being the first riders to reach mountain summits.
• White Jersey (Young Rider Classification): the white jersey is for the best young rider based on their overall time in the standings. This competition is for cyclists under the age of 26.

Tour de France Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Tour de France Favorites

This year’s edition of the Tour de France features the following “Big Four” favorites:

Tadej Pogacar (-150)  

• Team: UAE Team Emirates
• Best TDF Finish: 1^st (2020, 2021), 2^nd (2022, 2023)
• TDF Stage Wins: 11

Tadej Pogacar comes into the 2024 Tour de France as the odds-on favorite to win. There are two major reasons why oddsmakers and pundits feel Pogacar will win this year’s race. The first reason is because Jonas Vingegaard is coming off a serious injury where he punctured his lung in a crash. So, we don’t know what the defending TDF champ’s conditioning will be.

The second major reason why Pogacar is the betting favorite is because he’s absolutely crushed the 2024 season so far. The 25-year-old cycling superstar has dominated the races he’s entered this year so far. Pogacar won at Strade Bianche in March, smashed the field at the Volta a Catalunya a few weeks later, and then won at Liege-Bastogne-Liege in April.

However, Pogacar saved his best performance of the year so far, by destroying the peloton and winning the Giro d’Italia last month. He won the race by almost 10 minutes over the second place Daniel Martinez.

When you tally up his season to date, including stages, Pogacar has 14 victories on the year. This is a man hell-bent on winning the Tour de France again. Whenever he races, he wants to win. Just watch Tour de France Unchained on Netflix to get an idea of his competitiveness. It’s hard to root against a guy who puts in this much effort and commitment to winning any bike race he enters.

One last note on Pogacar, he might have the scariest team in the race. UAE Team Emirates has put together an All-Star supporting cast with Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida, Adam Yates, Marc Soler and Nils Politt. This team is built for the mountains and to compete with Visma-Lease a Bike.

Jonas Vingegaard (+175)

• Team: Visma-Lease a Bike
• Best TDF Finish: 1^st (2022, 2023), 2^nd (2021)
• TDF Stage Wins: three

As mentioned, Vingegaard suffered a scary crash at the Itzulia Basque Country race and punctured a lung. Nobody knew if he would be able to compete in the Tour de France due to this injury. But, roughly a week out from the Grand Depart, Visma-Lease a Bike officially announced their TDF roster and the defending champ was on it.

They also included Wout Van Aert who was not going to race the Tour initially. But a crash derailed his initial plans of the Giro and the Olympics. So, he’s now riding to support Vingegaard and trying to win a few stages.

Prior to the crash, Vingegaard had seven victories on the year including five stages and two races: O Gran Camino and Tirreno Adriatico.

This Visma team is loaded with stars, just like UAE. In addition to Van Aert, this squad will also have Tiesj Benoot, Wilco Kelderman, Christophe Laporte, and two strong American cyclists in Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson. The battle between UAE and Visma will be the featured attraction for the fifth straight Tour de France.

As for the two-time champ, we should have a good idea about Vingegaard’s health and racing legs by the end of the first week of the Tour. If you believe in him, then hop on these odds now. Because if he comes out looking like his normal self, then these odds will quickly go from positive to negative.

Primoz Roglic (+700)  

• Team: Bora-Hansgrohe
• Best TDF Finish: 2^nd (2020), 4^th (2018)
• TDF Stage Wins: three

Speaking of Visma, their former captain switched teams this offseason and is now the leader for Bora-Hansgrohe. After the team swept the all three podium positions in the 2023 Vuelta a Espana, you knew that there wasn’t enough room for Roglic and Vingegaard to be on the same squad.

For Roglic, he’s back in the commander’s chair as the captain of Bora and has a solid supporting cast for a smaller squad compared to Visma and UAE. Riding in support of Roglic will be Alkesandr Vlasov, Bob Jungels and Jai Hindley. If you recall, Hindley won a TDF stage last year, wore the yellow jersey for a day, and finished seventh overall. He will be a super domestique for Roglic and possibly the next man up if Primoz struggles at all or crashes.

On the season, Roglic has four victories. He won a stage in the Itzulia Basque Country before the crash. His best performance of the year so far, came at the Tour’s warm-up race – the Criterium du Dauphine. Roglic won two stages and crushed the field as he cruised to victory in this eight-stage race.

Roglic looks in top form heading into the Tour de France. And, with the ASO race organizers doing their best to create a route that gives cyclists other than Pogacar and Vingegaard, a fighting chance, Roglic will be contending for a podium spot this year. If the two favorites falter in any way, look for Roglic to take advantage and climb higher onto the podium, possibly all the way to the top. 

Remco Evenepoel (+1400)

• Team: Soudal Quick-Step
• Best TDF Finish: First appearance
• TDF Stage Wins: zero

Making his Tour de France debut is the talented Remco Eveneopoel. The 24-year-old Belgian is considered one of the top GC riders in the sport today. He does have a Grand Tour victory on his resume with a 2022 Vuelta a Espana title.

However, there are some concerns about his form heading into the Tour. Evenepoel started off the season strong with wins at smaller events like the Volta ao Algarve and a runner-up at Paris-Nice.

Heading into the Criterium du Dauphine, he was one of the pre-race favorites. Unfortunately, Remco faded down the stretch. After winning the ITT on Stage 4, Evenepoel cracked in the mountains and could never get back into contention against riders like Roglic. He ended up 7^th in the GC standings.

With that said, you must keep in mind that he was coming back from injuries and it definitely affected his performance in the Dauphine. With a few extra weeks to train and prepare for the Tour de France, I expect a healthy Evenepoel. In fact, two time trials definitely play into his strengths.

With Mikel Landa as his top lieutenant, Soudal Quick-Step has provided Remco with a veteran rider who twice finished fourth in the Tour. Landa’s experience will help Evenepoel in the Tour just like he did in the Dauphine. If Remco can hang in the mountains with the race favorites, he will be on the podium by time the race finishes in Nice.

Tour de France Betting Value

The following cyclists offer betting value based on their current seasons and previous Tour de France results:

Adam Yates (+2800)

• Team: UAE Team Emirates
• Best TDF Finish: 3^rd (2023), 4^th (2016)
• TDF Stage Wins: One

Adam Yates finished third in the 2023 Tour de France, which surpassed his previous best of fourth place in the 2016 TDF. Yates looked incredible last year in helping Pogacar in the mountains. He will be tasked with the same job this year. However, if Pogacar crashes or has any problems, Yates should be the man to take over as the leader.

Yates is coming off an impressive performance in the Tour de Suisse where he won the eight-stage race just a few weeks ago. Additionally, he also snagged the points and mountains classifications as well. Yates finished in the top two over the last five stages of this race. He also won the Tour of Oman in February. On the year, Yates has five wins.

Coming into the Tour de France, Yates along with Joao Almeida looked like the best domestiques in the sport as they won four stages in the Tour de Suisse. And, when they weren’t winning, the duo had four second-place finishes as well. Their domination only leads to Pogacar’s improved chances of winning.

Looking in great form, don’t be surprised if Yates finds his way back onto the podium this year.

Carlos Rodriguez (+3300)

• Team: Ineos Grenadiers
• Best TDF Finish: 5^th (2023)
• TDF Stage Wins: One

The one rider that I believe is being overlooked the most, is Carlos Rodriguez. The Ineos Grenadiers leader, and there shouldn’t be any doubts about this if you watched the Tour de France Unchained and his 2024 season so far, Rodriguez will have a strong team supporting him in the TDF this year.

Last year, there was confusion over who was the leader of Ineos. However, Rodriguez proved that he was with his legs and 5^th place finish in the GC. This year, he will have Geraint Thomas, Michal Kwiatkowski, Tom Pidcock and Egan Bernal all supporting him. That’s two former TDF winners riding in support of the 23-year-old Spaniard.

On the season, Rodriguez has three wins including a Tour de Romandie victory. At the Criterium du Dauphine, Rodriguez finished fourth behind Roglic, Jorgenson and Dereke Gee. His downfall was the time trial where he lost time to all three men ahead of him in the standings.

With two time trials in this year’s Tour, there is some concern as to how Rodriguez will do in this race. Yet, with a few summit finishes, this talented climber should be able to put time on his rivals and balance out whatever he loses in the time trials.

With that in mind, I really like Rodriguez to compete for a podium finish this year. There’s a lot of talent supporting him and he has the talent to race with Pogacar and Vingegaard in the mountains.

Tour de France Longshot

Matteo Jorgenson of Visma-Lease a Bike, is my top longshot (+30000) bet to win the Tour de France. The American rider will turn 25 just a few days into the Tour and has proven to be a revelation for Visma this year.

Jorgenson won Dwars door Vlaanderen and Paris-Nice earlier this season. He also rode a brilliant Criterium du Dauphine earlier this month where he finished second behind Roglic. With his success this season, some race pundits have tabbed Jorgenson as the next great GC rider for Visma.

This will be Jorgenson’s third Tour de France appearance. He crashed out of last year’s event and finished 20^th in 2022. However, he does have double-digit Top 10 finishes on TDF stages and looks like the best rider to pick up the slack if Vingegaard is hurt.

Sure, Sepp Kuss could become the leader for Visma if Vingegaard’s health is not up to par, but Jorgenson is a better time trialist and very comparable to Kuss in the mountains. He appears to be the best choice for GC contention if things go south for the defending TDF champ. At +30000 odds, there’s not a better longshot to take a flier on.

2024 Tour de France Predictions

I am a self-proclaimed Visma fan. Since Roglic and Van Aert burst on the professional road racing scene for Visma, I’ve been a fan of this squad. I’ve had many heartbreaks over Roglic’s Tour de France crashes along with Van Aert as well.

When Vingegaard took the baton from Roglic in 2021, I begrudgingly accepted this passing of the torch better than Roglic did. Witnessing Vingegaard’s professionalism and work ethic only made me a bigger fan as I picked him to win the last two Tours.

Unfortunately, I have to go against my favorite team in this year’s Tour de France. I will definitely root for Vingegaard to win, along with Americans Kuss and Jorgenson. But a punctured lung is a scary injury that we just don’t know if Vingegaard can fully recover from and compete against Pogacar for the yellow jersey.

Speaking of Pogacar, he has looked phenomenal this year so far. Additionally, UAE has put together one of the best teams I’ve ever seen. The level of supporting talent should keep Pogacar safe and in good position in the mountains.

It pains me to say this, but I’m picking Pogacar to end Visma’s two-year run at the top by winning his third Tour de France title.

TDF Bet: Tadej Pogacar -150

Tour de France Winners

Unofficially, Lance Armstrong holds the record for the most Tour de France victories with seven. Many of his records have been disqualified as of now. Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain are tied for the most official Tour de France wins at five apiece. The following is a list of the most recent Tour de France winners:

• 2023: Jonas Vingegaard
• 2022: Jonas Vingegaard
• 2021: Tadej Pogacar
• 2020: Tadej Pogacar
• 2019: Egan Bernal
• 2018: Geraint Thomas   
• 2017: Chris Froome
• 2016: Chris Froome
• 2015: Chris Froome
• 2014: Vincenzo Nibali

Most Days In The Yellow Jersey

Eddy Merckx also holds the record for the most yellow jerseys with 96 and stage wins with 34. Although, Mark Cavendish is tied with Merckx for the stage win mark. Lance Armstrong was second to Merckx with 83 yellow jerseys. In comparison, Vingegaard has 27 yellow jerseys and Pogacar has 20 for their careers.

2024 Tour de France Teams

The following 22 teams have been officially confirmed for the 2024 Tour de France:

Tour de France Route

The 2024 edition of the Tour de France looks like an effort from the ASO race organizers to make things harder for Pogacar and Vingegaard to win. Last year, the TDF was a mountainous race that saw numerous stages at high elevations and the return of classic climbs like the Puy de Dome and Col du Grand Colombier.

It was not a surprise that Vingegaard and Pogacar dominated the 2023 TDF with so much climbing involved. However, this year, the ASO has done its best to level the playing field.

Some of the TDF route’s highlights include: four mountain finishes, 14 gravel sections on Stage 9, eight flat stages, a time trial on the final stage of the race, and time bonuses during stages in addition to the customary time bonuses at the end of the selected stages. This will be the best chance for the peloton to upstage Pogacar or Vingegaard since 2019, before either rider became Tour de France champion.

The following is a stage-by-stage breakdown of the 2024 Tour de France:

Stage 1: Florence to Rimini

• Date: June 29
• Type: Hilly
• Distance:206 km (128 miles)

The Grand Depart marks the first time the Tour has started in Italy as it sees the riders roll out from Florence and finishing in Rimini. There will be a celebration for the 100^th anniversary of the first Italian victory in the Tour de France. In 1924, Ottavio Bottechia was the first ever Italian cyclist to win the Tour.

Florence also honors the most renowned pre-WWII Italian cyclist in Gino Bartali who won the 1938 and 1948 Tour de Frances along with multiple Giro d’Italia victories.

The stage is 206 km long with an elevation gain of 3,800 meters, which makes this a feisty start to the Tour. There are seven ascensions with the Cote de San Marino being the final climb. However, the last 15 km will be a flat run-in to the line where we should see the sprinters take the win. Time bonuses of 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available to the first three riders across the line.

Stage 2: Cesenatico to Bologna

• Date: June 30
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 200 km (120 miles)

The second stage is even punchier than the first. There are five short, steep climbs that favor the more explosive climbers including Pogacar. However, the final few kilometers will be flat to the finish line where there are 10, 6, and 4 second bonuses. On this stage, there will also be 8, 5, and 2 second bonuses on the climb of San Luca.

Stage 3: Piacenza to Turin

• Date: July 1
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 229 km (142 miles)

If the sprinters don’t compete over the first two days, this stage is definitely for the peloton’s fastest men. Expect your typical bunch-sprint finish. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 4: Pinerolo, Italy to Valloire, France

• Date: July 2
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 138 km (86 miles)

A deceptively tough stage with a few climbs including the Col du Galibier that’s 23 km long with an average gradient of 5.1%. This is only the second time that a stage has finished in Vallorie. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line. 8, 5, and 2 second bonuses are available on the Galibier.

Stage 5: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Saint-Vulbas

• Date: July 3
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 177 km (110 miles)

Another sprint stage where riders will leave the French Alps and finish the day with a bunch sprint. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 6: Macon to Dijon

• Date: July 4
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 163 km (101 miles)

A second sprint stage in a row will certainly have the peloton moving at fast speeds throughout the day. The last 1K is virtually a straight shot to the finish line, so expect an intense sprint. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 7: Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin

• Date: July 5
• Type: Individual Time Trial
• Distance: 25 km (16 miles)

This will be the first time that the TDF visits Gevrey-Chambertin and the inaugural trip is punctuated with an individual time trial, which features a small climb halfway through the stage. You can expect the best time trialists to battle for the stage win.

Stage 8: Semur-en-Auxois to Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises

• Date: July 6
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 176 km (109 miles)

Depending on who you ask, this stage can be flat or hilly. With numerous small hills to overcome, riders will most likely say it was not a flat run like previous days. The final 1K will see a 3% gradient, which should favor riders like Wout Van Aert instead of the traditional sprinters. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 9: Troyes to Troyes

• Date: July 7
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 199 km (124 miles)

This hilly stage has received criticism due to the 14 gravel sections which can easily cause crashes or puncture tires. It will certainly be a tense ride for the peloton before heading into the first rest day of the Tour. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 10: Orleans to Saint-Amand-Montrond

• Date: July 9
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 187 km (116 miles)

Following the rest day, sprinters should be excited as this flat stage provides another chance for the sport’s fastest men to add to their cycling legacies. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 11: Evaux-les-Bains to Le Lioran

• Date: July 10
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 211 km (131 miles)

This stage could be the first time we see a mountain battle between the GC contenders as there’s 4,350 meters of climbing including four categorized climbs over the last 50km of the stage. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line. 8, 5, and 2 second bonuses will be available over the Col du Perthu, which is located with 15km left in the stage.

Stage 12: Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot

• Date: July 11
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 204 km (127 miles)

If the sprinters survive the previous day, they will be enjoying the first of two chances to win a stage this week as the next two days enter a flatter profile and perfect for bunch-sprints. However, on this day, the sprinters will have to make it through the first 135k which has numerous climbs. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 13: Agen to Pau

• Date: July 12
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 171 km (106 miles)

A series of smaller hills will dot the final 40k of the stage, but this is clearly a sprint finish. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 14: Pau to Saint-Lary-Soulan (Pla d’Adet)

• Date: July 13
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 152 km (94 miles)

The first half of the day is flat and easy for the peloton. Unfortunately, it’s a hard finish on the day with the Col du Tourmalet, Horquette d’Ancizan, and the Pla d’Adet. All three climbs present unique challenges. The Tourmalet is 19km long, but the Pla d’Adet is 10.6km long with an average gradient of 7.9%. This is a day for punchy riders or even a breakaway. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 15: Loudenvielle to Plateau de Beille

• Date: July 14
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 198 km (123 miles)

No rest for the weary as this is Bastille Day and you can expect the French riders to intensify the race. There are 4,850 meters of climbing through the Pyrenees with numerous ascensions. The exclamation point on this stage is the Plateu de Beille at the end of the day. A 15.8km climb with an average gradient of 7.9% will definitely shake up the GC battle. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 16: Gruissan to Nimes

• Date: July 16
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 187 km (116 miles)

Coming out of the second, and final, rest day, riders will be happy to see a flat profile as the peloton races through a transition stage. You can expect the sprinters to make the most out of one of the last opportunities at a victory. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 17: Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux to SuperDevoluy

• Date: July 17
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 178 km (111 mi)

The peloton will enter the Alps on this stage, which will see 3,000 meters of climbing and three major ascensions in the final 40km of the day. We could see a breakaway take this stage due to the lengthy flat run into the launching of the first climb. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line. 8, 5, and 2 bonus seconds are available over the Col du Noyer, which comes with 11.5km remaining in the stage.

Stage 18: Gap to Barcelonnette                

• Date: July 18
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 179 km (111 miles)

This day features numerous rolling hills, which could present another breakaway opportunity as there are no major climbs or lengthy flat roads to navigate. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 19: Embrun to Isola 2000

• Date: July 19
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 145 km (90 miles)

This stage features 4,500 meters of climbing along with two HC mountains and a finish up a Category 1 climb at Isola 2000. The second climb is the Cime de la Bonette which is the highest road in France. Expect the GC’s best riders to showcase their legs on this day and win the stage. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 20: Nice to Col de la Couillole

• Date: July 20
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 133 km (83 miles)

Like Stage 19, this day has three massive climbs, scary descents and a summit finish up the Col de la Couillole which is 15k long and a 7.1% average gradient. This is another day for the yellow jersey contenders. 10, 6, and 4 seconds are available at the finish line.

Stage 21: Monaco to Nice

• Date: July 21
• Type: Individual Time Trial
• Distance: 34 km (21 miles)

This 34km hilly, time trial is the perfect way to shake up the standings at the end of three weeks of racing. For the first since its inception, the Tour will not finish in or near Paris. Instead, it will be in Nice due to the Paris Olympics. We could see the top riders in the standings embark on a final battle for the yellow jersey and the podium.

2024 Tour de France FAQ

The following is a quick preview of this year’s Tour de France: