UFC 306 Odds and Predictions

UFC 306 odds are live at online bookmakers and now is the time to submit your bets. If this event doesn’t remind you why the UFC tops the best MMA promotions, I don’t know what to tell you.

The big event is less than a full week away, as some massive names prepare to touch gloves in Las Vegas, Nevada starting at 6:30 pm EST with the Prelims.

The main event has Sean O’Malley defending his bantamweight title belt against Merab Dvalishvili, and this card includes even more star power with the likes of Brian Ortega, Valentina Shevchenko, and more gracing the Octagon.

My UFC 242 Fight Night picks just about broke even, but some last second cancellations prevented it from being a fun night. UFC 306 promises to be worth our time and energy no matter what, but I’ll also try to make sure you don’t exit the event empty handed.

Let’s look at the current UFC 306 betting odds and see how you should bet this weekend.

UFC 306 Odds

Several online betting sites have UFC 306 betting odds out; here are the latest for the main card:

The UFC 306 betting odds are pretty appealing for the main card. There isn’t insane value from a high upside perspective, but you’re getting very good fighters at really nice prices.

There’s only one big underdog on the main card, with Esteban Ribovics coming in at a +215 price at a lot of sportsbooks. Other than that, the oddsmakers are pricing these bouts pretty tightly.

Of course, that could make for a difficult time finalizing your UFC 306 picks. Luckily I’ll be walking you through every single bet worth targeting this weekend. No matter which way you go, just be sure to shop the lines so you get the best price possible.

UFC 306 Main Card Predictions

The main card for UFC 306 is for PPV viewers only, and fires off at 9:00 pm EST. Here’s how I think each bout will play out.

Sean O’Malley (-135) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+105)

The man known as Suga is a menace. Sean O’Malley has one career loss on his resume, and he avenged a KO defeat by besting Marlon Vera in his most recent match.

Few MMA fighters have the striking and knockout power O’Malley possesses, as he brings 12 KO wins to the table. He also has the height and reach edge in this matchup, as well as youth.

That said, Merab Dvalishvili has proven to be virtually impossible to stop early. He has one submission loss in his career, but nobody has ever knocked him out. He doesn’t offer a lot of early stoppage upside of his own, but 13 of his 17 wins have come down to a Decision.

O’Malley unleashes 7.63 significant strikes per minute, so I wouldn’t go as far to say that he can’t be the one to hand Merab his first KO loss. However, what’s more likely is he simply out-hits his opponent en route to a Decision win.

It’s a close call against a good opponent, especially since Dvalishvili is the superior wrestler. That said, I like O’Malley to outlast Merab and hold onto his title belt in this one. The reality is you simply won’t often get him at a price like this, either.

Bet: Sean O’Malley -135

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+110)

There’s another huge title fight on the UFC 306 main card, as Alexa Grasso puts her women’s flyweight hardware on the line against Valentina Shevchenko.

Grasso is considerably younger than her challenger, and the two will face off for a third and likely final time. They ran into a Draw in their second match, while Grasso submitted Bullet in the first match.

All good things must come to an end, but I think this is one last gasp for the 36-year old fighter. She battled hard in the last meeting, and she will be chomping at the bit to steal this title belt back.

Bullet has the edge in takedown accuracy and significant strike accuracy, and she has now faced Grasso two times and seems to be inching closer to getting a win. Could we be seeing the set-up for a fourth match? Could Bullet win and retire as champion?

All options are on the table. All I know is Shevchenko is still a highly-skilled fighter and she has a bunch of friendly narratives at her side. I’ll take my chances with her at plus money.

Bet: Valentina Shevchenko +110

Diego Lopes (-176) vs. Brian Ortega (+146)

Speaking of aging UFC stars we want to see get back in the W column, there’s 33-year old Brian Ortega, hoping to build positive momentum after submitting Yair Rodriguez in his last fight.

It’d been rough sledding for Ortega prior to that, as he had lost three of his previous four bouts. Those were more than respectable defeats, of course, as he lost to Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway.

Nobody is slamming Ortega for that, and he did bounce back and show he can still get it done the last time he hit the Octagon. The question, of course, is if he can do it again at UIFC 306.

It won’t be easy. Ortega gives up a sizable height and reach advantage to Diego Lopez, while the latter has the edge in significant strike accuracy. I want to be nostalgic and cheer for Ortega to keep heading in the right direction, but I can’t.

Lopes is younger and more versatile at this point, as he has 10 career KOs and 12 wins on the mat via submission. He’s simply the better fighter at this point and is live to end it early in a number of ways.

Bet: Diego Lopes -176

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-135) vs. Ode’ Osbourne (+105)

Heading into UFC 306, Ronaldo Rodriguez is a -135 betting favorite due to a more dominant game than opponent Ode’ Osbourne. Rodriguez is only 1-0 in the UFC, but he impressed with a rear-naked choke against Denys Bondar.

Prior to that, he’d ripped off six straight wins, while he’s only tasted defeat twice out of 18 career mixed martial arts bouts. He’s displayed a versatile skill-set and a killer instinct, too.

The downside? He isn’t very experienced inside the Octagon and he has just a 65.5-inch reach compared to 73 for his opponent. He does have the edge in significant strike and takedown accuracy, however, to the surprise of no one.

Osbourne has been around for a minute, but he’s just 12-7 overall (4-5 in the UFC) for a reason. He has some kills and is a balanced fighter, but he has a soft chin and can be had on the mat.

All of this makes Rodriguez feel like a slam dunk when looking at his UFC 306 odds.

Bet: Ronaldo Rodriguez -135

Daniel Zellhuber (-265) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+215)

The last fight of the UFC 306 main card has Daniel Zellhuber as a huge favorite. He comes in with a stout 15-1 record and a huge reach edge (77 to 69), but the underlying numbers aren’t so favorable.

That said, Zellhuber is 3-1 in the UFC and has earned a Performance of the Night honor already in his young MMA career. 

Ribovics might be being overlooked here, though. He’s coming off an under the radar knockout victory over Terrance McKinney, and he has the edge in this matchup in takedown accuracy (66% to 33%) and significant strike accuracy (57% to 41%).

Zellhuber is good, but to this point he hasn’t dominated to the point that I’d feel good about eating a -265 price to get him on my betting slip. Ribovics has just one loss to his name and has hard-hitting upside (7 KOs). I’m taking the longshot.

Bet: Esteban Ribovics +215

UFC 306 Preliminary Card Predictions

The Prelims get going at 6:30 pm EST on ESPN+. Here’s a look at how each fight might shake out.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-800) vs. Qileng Aori (+500)

The first fight to cover for the UFC 306 Prelims has Raul Rosas Jr. as a huge favorite to take out Qileng Aori. The odds get even more out of control, depending on where you plan on betting on MMA fights.

The point, though, is Rosas probably isn’t someone to bet against. He’s less experienced than Qileng Aori, but he’s 9-1 so far as a pro mixed martial artist and he has the edge in significant striking. He’s also been a problem on the floor, where he’s racked up six submissions.

I do think the door is open for an upset in terms of experience, but Rosas is the more talented fighter. I would look for a prop for this one, whether it be Rosas to win via submission or for the fight to go the distance.

Either way, a Rosas Jr. win is likely the end result. If this fight doesn’t end early, it could be a good one to bet on per round.

Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. -800

Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Norma Dumont (-110)

Two big names in women’s MMA duke it out in the women’s bantamweight division this weekend, as Irene Alda (15-7) hopes to down Norma Dumont (11-2).

Dumont is the slight underdog here, but this is definitely a tough one to call. You’re getting better numbers and a bit more upside with Dumont. She has superior striking accuracy and better takedown accuracy, so on paper, she has the edge.

The Immortal is also on fire, as the 33-year old has won each of her last four fights. She doesn’t bring knockout power to the table, but she’s a grinder who is tough to finish.

Aldana has more experience and is a risk to end the fight early, but she’s three years older. Her resume is more impressive, of course, as she downed Karol Rosa in her last bout, and took Amanda Nunes the distance in 2023.

It’s a close call, but I ever so gently lean toward Aldana. Her career is winding down, but she simply offers the upside and experience that Dumont can’t.

Bet: Irene Aldana -120

Manuel Torres (-125) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-105)

Another tough UFC 306 prediction to make comes in this bout between Manuel Torres (15-2) and Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5).

Torres is the slight betting favorite, even though he’s a bit older, and has shorter reach (73 to 75.5). Of course, he has better takedown accuracy and superior significant striking numbers.

El Loco is also 3-0 in the UFC with all of his bouts ending early, while he offers fight-ending upside with 7 KOs and 7 submissions to his name. He’s never been KO’d, himself, and he hasn’t lost since 2019.

Bahamondes is no slouch, though. This fight could be a banger, as he has KO upside (10 career knockouts), and he’s had some wild finishes during a 4-2 UFC run to this point.

This is another unbelievably difficult fight to call, but Torres has been more of a menace and the fight numbers support him. If you go by the eye test alone, you may never make this pick. I’ll take Torres, who still gets you decent enough value at his -125 odds.

Bet: Manuel Torres -125

Yazmin Jauregui (-455) vs. Kelten Souza (+330)

The second biggest UFC 306 betting favorite is Yazmin Jauregui, who brings a solid 11-1 record to the table. The Mexico native has 7 career knockouts on her resume and has gone a respectable 3-1 through her first four UFC matches.

She did display some vulnerability in a TKO loss to Denise Gomes in July of last year, however, which is cause for pause when going up against Kelten Souza (8 career KO wins).

Souza is five years older, but she offers better significant striking accuracy and has been in good form with a 6-1 record over her last seven fights. I do think she can stage the upset, but it’s all about how likely it is.

The +330 odds are very alluring here, as Souza is a solid fighter. She’s also been in fantastic form and in my opinion, is not some free fall away from Jauregui in terms of overall ability and talent.

She was impressive when she won the title at Invicta 51, and while she’s been a mixed bag through a 1-1 start in the UFC, I think she’s underrated. I’m aiming high with the upside in this one.

Bet: Kelten Souza +330

Joshua Van (-205) vs. Edgar Chairez (+170)

Last, but not least, is a bout between Joshua Van (10-2) and Edgar Chairez (11-5). Van is the clear favorite, even though he loses six inches in reach and is two inches shorter.

That could have us thinking twice for a second, but Van is vastly superior in significant strikes per minute and has the edge in overall striking accuracy, too. He’s the younger, more talented fighter as well.

That said, he perhaps got exposed in a KO loss to Charles Johnson at UFC on ESPN 59. He had been on a heater up until then, but could there be room for Chairez to step in and score an upset? I can’t say it’s not possible.

That said, Van will be looking to get back on track and he’s the better fighter. 

Bet: Joshua Van -205

UFC 306 Fight Card