UFC Fight Night 242 Odds and Predictions

The latest UFC Fight Night 242 odds indicate an explosive main event. Sean Brady is a solid -170 betting favorite, but the price doesn’t suggest it’ll be a breeze against Gilbert Burns.

UFC on ESPN+ 100 promises to be worth our time beyond the headlining act, though. Jessica Andrade is a fun +210 underdog, while big names like Matt Schnell, Ryan Spann, Andre Lima, and more will be on hand come Saturday, September 7th, 2024.

My most recent picks for UFC on ESPN 62 didn’t disappoint. I nailed the headliner with Borralho earning a Decision win over Jared Cannonier, and proceeded to go 2-2 for the rest of the main card (3-2 overall).

Including the Prelims, my UFC betting picks were a respectable 5-4. I also warned bettors that Gerald Meerschaert was live for the upset, while I did hand out a solid value bet in Ryan Loder (+125).

There’s more where that came from, but I’ll be pushing for an even cleaner fight card. Join me as I analyze each fight, break down the UFC Fight Night 242 odds, and offer some more predictions.

UFC Fight Night 242 Odds

The top online betting sites have odds out. Here are the odds from BetUS.

Is the UFC Fight Night 242 card the most explosive we’ve ever seen? No, but one look at the main card and you know we’re in for a good time.

There is just one fight here that is egregiously priced. This means we have a shot at some upsets, and that the majority of these bouts could be closely contested.

That makes life difficult for the sportsbooks when it comes to pricing, but could leave the door open to some solid value. Rock solid favorites might have better prices than they should, and some underdogs could actually be safer picks than their odds suggest.

You can head to your preferred sportsbook if you want, but I’d advise taking in some extra insight. I’ll provide that with pick breakdowns below, while it’s never a bad idea to consider using a sports betting handicapper, either.

UFC Fight Night 242 Main Card Predictions

A little more insight and some data could help you make the right UFC Fight Night 242 picks for the Main Card, which begins at 7pm ET.

Sean Brady (-170) vs. Gilbert Burns (+140)

The main event has the 16-1 Brady taking on Gilbert Burns. Brady is the understandable betting favorite, as he’s younger, has the more impressive resume, and sports superior recent form.

Brady submitted Kelvin Gastelum in his most recent fight, but that came in December of 2023. That followed his only professional MMA loss, which came against Belal Muhammad via TKO.

Burns is a solid 22-7 for his career, but the 38-year old has been inconsistent, going just 3-4 over his last seven bouts. He may not be quite as rusty, though, seeing as he fought in March of this year. His showdown with Jack Della Maddalena (KO loss) did not go as planned, though.

Brady has the leg up here. Burns is a threat, to be sure, but Brady has the mild reach advantage, he’s a bit tougher to finish early, he’s the more efficient striker, and he’s the superior grappler.

To this point, Brady has a 3.29 takedown average per 15 minutes with a 57% takedown accuracy. His takedown defense is also quite impressive (87%). These numbers blow Burns out of the water, so statistically speaking, this may not be the fight to hunt for an upset.

Burns is still a big name and he’s fully capable of returning nice value as an +140 underdog. But logically, Sean Brady is the better all-around fighter and the likely winner here. Luckily, as far as favorites go, you’re getting a nice price with his -170 odds.

Natalia Silva (-260) vs. Jessica Andrade (+210)

You get considerably less value with Natalia Silva, who comes in with a solid 17-5-1 record and is favored to outlast the hard-hitting Jessica Andrade.

The 27-year old Brazilian is red hot coming into this women’s flyweight bout, as she hasn’t tasted defeat since a 2017 Decision loss to Marina Rodriguez. She’s also a versatile fighter with 12 of her 17 wins coming via Decision (5 KO, 7 submissions) and she’s been KO’d just one time.

Andrade knows a thing or two about battering her opponents, but she’s also pretty balanced. She has imposing power as evidenced by her 10 career knockout victories, but she also has eight submission wins.

While dangerous, Andrade’s style leaves her open to damage and it’s not too shocking that she’s been stopped early nine different times. She’s on a bit of a rebound with two straight wins, but has been up and down a bit (2-3) over her last five fights.tal

Silva is the rightful favorite, as she has a considerable height advantage and gets three more inches in reach. That could come in handy against Andrade, who lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute.

Defense is on Silva’s side, as she absorbs just 2.1 strikes per minute to Andrade’s 5.37. She also has 91% takedown defense.

That said, I think this is a fun spot to shoot for an upset. Andrade leaves herself open for damage, but she also can inflict plenty of it. Silva is quicker, but Andrade is stronger and more experienced.

At 32, Andrade is nearing the end, but with her recent momentum, she could position herself for one last run to the top.

Steve Garcia (-155) vs. Kyle Nelson (+125)

Next up is a featherweight bout between Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson. Garcia is the 9th ranked fighter in this weight class, while Nelson is unranked. Naturally, Garcia is the mild betting favorite at most MMA sportsbooks.

The American comes in with a solid 16-5 record and an astonishing 13 KOs in his career. He’s been rock solid in the UFC, going 5-2 so far and winning his last four bouts. The most recent win came against Seung Woo Choi and was his fourth straight win by stoppage.

Garcia can inflict major damage early in fights, but he also leaves himself open to early exits. Maheshate Hayisaer knocked him out back in 2022, and there’s a risk of something similar happening at UFC Fight Night 242.

Nelson has an almost identical record (16-5-1), but has been a more versatile fighter to this point. He has six career KOs still, and has been in fine form with three straight wins in the UFC.

His most recent victory was an impressive TKO win over Bill Algeo, moving him to 4-4-1 in the Octagon. I think he’s a worthy foe here, but Garcia’s stand up game is simply better. If this fight is on the feet, I think Garcia proves to be quite the steal at his -155 odds.

Alessandro Costa (-550) vs. Matt Schnell (+375)

The biggest favorite on the UFC on ESPN+ 100 main card is Alessandro Costa, who is 14-4 with five Kos and six submission wins. He’s been inconsistent of late (2-2) over his last four fights, but did take out Kevin Borjas via TKO his last time out in May of this year.

For what it’s worth, Costa has inferior height and reach to his opponent (three inches each), but he compares well across the board and has been elite (90%) when it comes to takedown defense.

This is especially important against Matt “Danger” Schnell, who has made his living on the ground. Schnell has nine career submission wins to his name, but he’s not an imposing striker and Costa’s defense arguably curbs his effectiveness on the canvas.

There is always the chance that Costa slips up and Schell shocks with a submission win, but just about everything tilts in the Brazilian’s favor. The only hiccup for bettors is the price.

Costa feels like a lock to win, but a straight up bet gets you nowhere. Instead, I’d look for UFC Fight Night 242 props that allow you to get on this one going inside the distance. A secondary option that might be worth chasing is Costa by KO.

Trevor Peek (-115) vs. Yanal Ashmoz (-115)

Wrapping up the UFC FN 242 main card is a seemingly even bout between Trevor Peek (9-2) and Yanal Ashmouz (7-1).

Peek has a mild edge in reach (70 inches to 69) and to this point has won almost all of his fights by knockout. He has the striking edge here, naturally, as he lands 1.50 more significant strikes per minute and also lands 54% of his strikes to 42% for Yanal.

Peek’s style makes him vulnerable long-term, as his defense isn’t quite as good as Ashmouz’s. I would also be a little worried about his gas tank, as he has looked tired early on in fights due to the amount of punches he’s thrown.

This is also a guy who is a threat to take his opponent to the mat, of course. Peek averages 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes (just 0.92 for Yanal). That said, neither of these fighters have been elite in terms of takedown defense or takedown accuracy.

Perhaps that leaves the light on for Yanal, who so far has displayed a more well-rounded game and has just one loss via Decision. He got off to a nice 7-0 record, but is just 1-1 in the UFC so far.

All things told, this one is priced as a pick’em for a reason. However, given both fighter’s inability to defend well and Peek’s power and aggressiveness, I lean toward him getting the win in this one.

UFC Fight Night 242 Preliminary Card Predictions

The UFC Fight Night 242 main card is a ton of fun, but you’ll want to inspect the odds and gain a little more insight before betting on the Prelims, which begin at 4pm ET.

Zhu Rong (-250) vs. Chris Padilla (+200)

Zhu helps kick off the UFC Fight Night 242 Prelims, as he brings a nice 25-5 record into a date with Chris Padilla (14-6). He dropped his UFC debut to Rodrigo Vargas back in 2021, but has been on fire with a 4-1 run ever since.

A submission win over Shin Haraguchi last February reminded everyone of his solid floor game, but Rong is best known for ending fights early with his firsts (15 KO!). His defense leaves something to be desired and he can take on a lot of punishment, but he doubles Padilla’s striking production.

Of course, Padilla’s best path to a win will be on the floor. He easily tops Zhu in the grappling game, where he averages almost 10 takedowns per minute and has a 100% takedown accuracy after submitting James Liontop in April of this year.

Padilla’s UFC sample size is tiny, but he’s obviously a serious threat if he can get this fight on the ground. He’s also had terrific form, winning each of his last four fights.

I do think Padilla to win via submission is a live bet, but Rong is the more explosive fighter and is more versatile. I’d be more inclined to take a KO or inside the distance win here when considering price, but the -250 odds are palatable enough for a likely winner.

Jaqueline Amorim (-300) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+225)

Another pretty big UFC Fight Night 242 betting favorite is Jaqueline Amorim, who sports a stout 8-1 record and six career submission wins. She’s climbed to -380 odds at some sportsbooks, so be sure to shop around for her best price if you like her to win.

Of course, she usually wins on the ground, so it might make sense to back her to win via submission. Amorim has averaged 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes across her three UFC fights thus far, with both of her wins coming via early stoppage.

On the other side is the 35-year old Demopoulos, who is a grinder at best. She does have four career submissions in her back pocket, and for what it’s worth, has yet to be submitted in her pro MMA career.

There’s a first time for everything, I reckon.

Demopoulos isn’t without skill, of course. She is 5-1 over her last six fights and took Karolina Kowalkiewicz the distance in her only defeat over that stretch. Her recent form is fantastic, too.

That said, the numbers and the tape suggest Amorim is the more skilled fighter, and that she has the edge on the ground. I think that’s where this one is headed, so we can confidently bet on Amorim straight up or to get a submission.

Ryan Spann (-325) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+235)

One of the bigger names on the UFC Fight Night 242 card is Spann, who is a large favorite as he prepares to battle the also popular St. Preux.

Spann is just 21-10 at this point of his career, and the 33-year old American is starting to slide. He’s lost three fights in a row (two by early stoppage), and is just 3-5 over his last eight bouts.

He’s still a versatile fighter with six KOs and 12 submission wins to his name, but it’s fairly arguable he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite.

Ovince St. Preux is long past his prime at age 41, but he reminded everyone that he can still grind out wins when he outlasted Kennedy Nzechukwu in March of this year. He hasn’t KO’d anyone since 2020, but 12 career knockouts tell us that could change at any moment.

This is one where I don’t mind living a little. I don’t want to bet on an aging Spann to get a KO against an old but savvy veteran, and his straight up price tag stinks. 

Instead, let’s focus on St. Preux, who has a 67% takedown defense and is comparable or flat out better in striking metrics. The recent form has been good enough for Ovince to get me to take the dive at his +235 price tag, too.

Andre Lima (-130) vs. Felipe dos Santos (EVEN)

Another reasonably big name on the UFC on ESPN+ 100 docket is Lima, who is a mild betting favorite against Felipe dos Santos.

Lima could arguably be a bigger favorite thanks to his perfect 9-0 record (2-0 in the UFC), but dos Santos is no slouch and Lima doesn’t have the advantage in reach.

It’s also worth noting that Lima hasn’t gone crazy in the UFC yet. He has two wins, but one was a DQ and the other was by Decision. He’s proven to be a more efficient striker than dos Santos so far and his defense has been superior, however.

Felipe is 1-1 in the UFC, and it’s arguable his resume is more impressive. He won via Split Decision against Victor Altamirano last February, and his lone career loss came against the dangerous Manel Kape.

Surviving Kape without getting KO’d is an accomplishment of its own, so dos Santos has my respect. I do still give the slight edge to Lima based on all of the data and his ability to simply find a way to win every time out, however.

Andre Petroski (-280) vs. Dylan Budka (+220)

There are a couple of other Prelims bouts, but they didn’t have odds at the time of this writing. 

I’ll cap things off with Petroski vs. Budka, which could be an interesting one. Petroski has 11 wins to his name and is 6-2 inside the UFC. He hasn’t exactly been dominating of late, though, as he’s just 1-2 over his last two fights.

Petroski is a pretty balanced fighter, and he has far more experience than Budka inside the Octagon. Budka’s lone UFC bout didn’t go so well, as Cesar Almeida TKO’d him in just two rounds.

I lean toward Petroski here, as the metrics are pretty even, but he has the edge in experience and Budka has been finished three times in just 10 fights. This could be another spot where we bet on early stoppage.

Petroski is a really good bet to win, but an inside the distance victory may offer a bit more value.

UFC Fight Night 242 Fight Card

UFC FN 242 Favorite	UFC FN 242 Underdog	UFC FN 242 Prediction
Sean Brady -170	Gilbert Burns +140	Sean Brady -170
Natalia Silva -260	Jessica Andrade +210	Jessica Andrade +210
Steve Garcia -155	Kyle Nelson +125	Steve Garcia -155
Alessandro Costa -550	Matt Schnell +375	Alessandro Costa -550
Trevor Peek -115	Yanal Ashmoz -115	Trevor Peek -115
Zhu Rong -250	Chris Padilla +200	Zhu Rong -250
Jaqueline Amorim -300	Vanessa Demopoulos +225	Jaqueline Amorim -300
Ryan Spann -325	Ovince St. Preux +235	Ovince St. Preux +235
Andre Lima -130	Felipe dos Santos EVEN	Andre Lima -130
Andre Petroski -280	Dylan Budka +220	Andre Petroski -280