UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Odds and Predictions 

On Saturday, August 3, the UFC returns to action with UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov live from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also referred to as UFC Abu Dhabi, UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi, UFC on ABC, and UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov.

This is the 16^th time that the UFC has held a show in Abu Dhabi and it will be headlined by a Top 10 bantamweight showdown as #2 Cory Sandhagen takes on the unbeaten, #10 ranked Umar Nurmagomedov. A second Top 10 bantamweight fight is also scheduled as #4 Marlon Vera battles #6 Deiveson Figueiredo. 

The co-featured bout is a middleweight fight between Shara Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk. As of this writing, there are 13 fights scheduled for UFC on ABC 7. 

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our UFC on ABC 7 predictions.  

UFC on ABC 7 Odds  

The following odds are for the UFC on ABC 7 Main Card only:

UFC on ABC 7 Main Card Predictions  

The following UFC on ABC 7 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 12pm ET live on ESPN+ PPV. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog, while all fighter measurements are courtesy of UFC’s official site:   

Joel Alvarez (-190) vs. Elves Brener (+165)

The lightweight bout between Joel Alvarez (20-3) and Elves Brener (16-4) is set to open the Main Card of UFC on ABC 7.

Brener comes in as the sizable underdog and is 3-1 inside the octagon. He last fought in May 2024, and lost to Myktybek Orolbai via decision. The loss snapped a five-fight winning streak that spanned three different promotions. 

Alavarez enters this weekend’s fight at 5-2 in the UFC. He won his last fight, which took place 13 months ago, via 2^nd round submission. It was a nice bounce back win after losing to Arman Tsarukyan via 2^nd round TKO in February 2022. 

Prior to that, Alvarez won four consecutive octagon appearances via stoppage, including a 1^st round TKO over Thiago Moises. 

Both men are dangerous strikers, but Alvarez is the more proven commodity to me. He’s faced tougher competition in the UFC and has 20 finishes in his career. I like for “El Fenomeno” to find the TKO in this bout. However, I’m staying away from the O/U of 1.5 rounds as this bout could end at any moment or go deep into the final seconds. 

Bet: Joel Alvarez (-190), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-200)

Mackenzie Dern (-125) vs. Loopy Godinez (+105)

The only women’s matchup on the Main Card is a Top 10 strawweight collision as #7 Mackenzie Dern (13-5) takes on #10 Loopy Godinez (12-4). 

Godinez is the slight underdog, but comes into this contest with a 7-2 record inside the octagon. However, she did lose via decision in her last outing in March. Godinez’s loss to Virna Jandiroba ended a four-fight winning streak. 

Dern is 8-5 in the UFC, but has lost three of her last four appearances, which includes two in a row. Once the competition became more elite, Dern has seen the wins dry up. Those last two losses came against elite fighters that were a stylistic mismatch with Dern. However, that won’t be the case in this weekend’s clash as Godinez is willing to go to the mat. 

It’s dangerous to go to the mat with Dern. Her four UFC submission wins are the second most all-time for a female competitor. Godinez has never suffered a stoppage defeat and I think she hangs on in this one as well. 

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-245) and the fight to go the distance (-215). 10 of Dern’s 18 pro fights have gone the distance including five of her last six outings. 12 of Godinez’s 16 pro fights have gone the distance. I like Dern to win via decision as she out-grapples her opponent. 

A nice prop bet to take a flier on would be Either Fighter to win via submission (+230). If we do see a stoppage, it will be due to a tap-out. 

But: Mackenzie Dern (-125), Over 2.5 Rounds (-245), Fight Goes The Distance (-215)

Tony Ferguson (+475) vs. Michael Chiesa (-650)

I just can’t fathom why the UFC is still allowing Tony Ferguson (25-10) to fight when he’s lost seven bouts in a row and is clearly a shell of his former self. But, instead of forcing him to retire, they feed him to Michael Chiesa (16-7) in this welterweight bout.

Ferguson hasn’t won in five years and that was due to a doctor stoppage against Donald Cerrone in June 2019. Four of those seven consecutive losses were via stoppage. 

Chiesa is riding a three-fight losing streak as well, with two coming by way of submission. So, if Ferguson can turn back the hands of time for one fight, he might find the win. Unfortunately, father time and the sport has caught up to Ferguson.  

Chiesa is the better fighter between the two and it will be evident on Saturday night. 15 of Chiesa’s 23 pro fights have ended via submission and he’s 10-5 in these bouts. This contest will end when Chiesa gets it to the mat and forces Ferguson to tap out for the fourth time in his career. 

There’s no value with Chiesa’s moneyline, so go with the Fight to end inside the distance at -130 odds. Great value for this matchup.

Bet: Michael Chiesa (-650), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-130)

Marlon Vera (+120) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-140)

This Top 10 bantamweight battle between #4 Marlon Vera (23-9-1) and #6 Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) is going to be an entertaining one. Neither man will shy away, which should make it a contender for Fight of the Night. 

Vera has gone 1-2 in this last three fights with decision losses to Cory Sandhagen and Sean O’Malley. The loss to O’Malley was a rematch from their August 2020 bout. 

This weekend’s clash will be the 21^st bantamweight fight for Vera, which is tied for the most in the division’s history. His 13 bantamweight wins are tied for second all-time. But he does have the bantamweight record with 10 stoppages.

Figueiredo is a former two-time flyweight champion who moved up to bantamweight last year. He’s 2-0 in this division with solid wins against Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. The latter came in April at UFC 300. He holds the record for most stoppages in the flyweight division with seven. 

Both men are talented fighters, but Figueiredo is better at everything that Chito Vera is considered to be good at. The only real shot that Chito has, is by using the size advantage to bully his way into a favorable outcome. Sadly, for Vera fans, that is a very low probability.

Figueiredo will land more strikes and a higher volume, which should reward him with the judges as he wins this contest via decision. I don’t see him stopping Vera unless it’s a lucky chokehold. Six of Vera’s last eight fights have ended via decision. 

If you bet the Over 2.5 rounds (-320) and for the fight to go the distance (-275), make small wagers. Figueiredo winning on points pays out at -125. However, the safe and smart play is Figueiredo’s -140 moneyline. 

Bet: Deiveson Figueiredo (-140)

Shara Magomedov (-235) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+200)

For a replacement fight, due to the Diaz-Luque bout being cancelled, this middleweight contest between Shara Magomedov (13-0) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8, 1 NC) should be a banger. In fact, it could end up earning a fight night bonus. 

Oleksiejczuk is 7-6 in the UFC, with losses in three of his last four bouts including two in a row. He last competed in June and lost to Kevin Holand via 1^st round submission. That loss came on the heels of a defeat to Michel Pereira in March via 1^st round submission. 

Six of his eight pro losses have come via submission. Good thing for Oleksiejczuk, is that he won’t have to worry about a submission this weekend. He’ll just have to worry about getting knocked out. 

Magomedov joined the UFC last fall and has won both of his fights. In October 2023, he beat Bruno Silva via decision. In June, he beat Antonio Trocoli via 3^rd round TKO. This will be a six-week turnaround for “Shara Bullett”. 11 of his 13 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. 

I don’t see Oleksiejczuk being the man to test Magomedov’s grappling or submission skills. If anything, he’s going to test Shara’s power and find out the hard way how lethal it is. This fight will end inside the distance (-215). However, stay away from the O/U of 1.5 rounds as this bout could end in the opening frame or in the deep waters of the final frame. 

As for the winner, take Magomedov to win via TKO. 

Bet: Shara Magomedov (-235)

Cory Sandhagen (+250) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-300)

The main event of the night is a bantamweight clash between the #2 Cory Sandhagen (17-4) and #10 Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0). It’s an exciting contest as Sandhagen has a better shot at winning this matchup than the odds indicate. 

Sandhagen is a live dog in this fight. He’s more proven and has faced tougher competition at this level. He’s won three straight fights since dropping two in a row back in 2021. However, he hasn’t competed in 12 months. This will be Sandhagen’s 6^th main event fight and he has an impressive 4-1 record in the five previous bouts. 

Nurmagomedov joined the UFC 27 months ago and has gone 4-0 inside the octagon. He last competed in March, where he won via decision over Bekzat Almakhan. He’s also defeated Barcelos, Maness, and Kelleher during his time with the promotion. 9 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage. 

This bout is going to come down to distance. If Sandhagen can keep the fight at a distance, then he neutralizes his opponent’s grappling strengths. If he doesn’t then this is going to be a tough fight. 

I believe the underdog is worth a small flier due to his striking abilities, versatility and big-fight experience. With that said, Nurmagomedov should get inside and drag Sandhagen to the mat. Once that happens, this bout is over. 

Skip the Over/Under of 3.5 rounds as this fight is too hard to predict already. Nurmagomedov will get the submission win at some point during the contest. But he does have eight decision victories, so we’re not completely ruling that out. Fight ending inside the distance at +115 odds is very appealing as well.

Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov (-300), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (+115)

UFC on ABC 7 Preliminary Card Predictions   

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Preliminary Card, which begins live at 10am ET on ESPN and ESPN+.  

Sedriques Dumas (-230) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+195)

The middleweight matchup between Sedriques Dumas (9-2) and Denis Tiuliulin (10-9, 1 NC) is projected to open the UFC on ABC 7 event. 

This prelim bout features two men looking for a win. Dumas has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC with a loss in his last contest. He suffered a 1^st round TKO against Nursulton Ruziboev. Prior to that, Dumas won two straight fights. 

Tiuliulin has dropped three fights in a row, with all three coming via stoppage. He’s now 1-3 in the UFC and could be on his way out with a loss this weekend. 

Dumas is the favorite for a reason. He has more power, is the better athlete and a superior grappler. This fight will end inside the distance (-200). However, that O/U of 1.5 rounds is too difficult to predict as it could end quickly, or Tiuliulin could make it to the third. 

Either way, Dumas is getting the stoppage victory as Tiuliulin has seen seven of his nine pro defeats come via stoppage. 

Bet: Sedriques Dumas (-230), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-200)

Jai Herbert (-130) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+110)

Jai Herbert (12-5-1) takes on Rolando Bedoya (14-3) in this lightweight prelim clash. Herbert enters as the slight favorite in this matchup. Yet, he’s 2-4-1 in his seven UFC fights with a 1-1-1 record in his last three trips inside the octagon. Herbert last competed in July 2023, and lost to Fares Ziam via decision. 

Bedoya enters this weekend’s bout on a two-fight losing streak, with both losses coming via decision inside the octagon. Although, he has yet to win a UFC bout, Bedoya has shown promise. In fact, his strong showings against Kalin Williams and Kenan Song make me believe he’s the better wager for this matchup.

Both men are solid strikers, but I like what I’ve seen from Bedoya. Williams and Song are better than Herbert. Bedoya held his own in those two fights. I like for this contest to go Over 2.5 rounds (-160) and the full distance (-140). 10 of Bedoya’s 17 pro fights have gone to a decision, where he’s 7-3. Herbert has gone the distance in three consecutive bouts. 

Although Herbert is the bigger fighter with a three-inch reach advantage, I think Bedoya outstrikes Herbert in this contest and wins on points via unanimous decision. 

Bet: Rolando Bedoya (+110), Over 2.5 Rounds (-160), Fight Goes The Distance (-140)

Viktoriia Dudakova (-180) vs. Sam Hughes (+140)

The undefeated Viktoriia Dudakova (8-0) battles Sam Hughes (8-6) in a women’s strawweight contest. Dudakov enters as the sizable favorite and is 2-0 inside the octagon. She last fought in October 2023, and beat Jinh Yu Frey via decision. 

Dudakova earned her opportunity by winning a DWCS fight in August 2022, via decision over Maria Silva. Six of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. 

Hughes is 3-5 in the UFC and has alternated between wins and losses over the last few years. She last competed in February and lost via decision. 

Both women are solid strikers in addition to respectable grappling skills. And, both will be tough outs. Six of Hughes’ last seven fights have gone the distance and I see this one as well. With that said, I like Dudakova to win this fight via decision. She’s better in striking and grappling than Hughes, but the latter is very durable and should survive the full three rounds. 

Bet: Viktoriia Dudakova (-180), Over 2.5 Rounds (-450), Fight Goes The Distance (-450), Dudakova by points (-125)

Guram Kavtaradze (-205) vs. Jordan Vucenic (+175)

The lightweight bout between Guram Kutateladze (12-4) and Jordan Vucenic (13-2) is a striker versus grappler affair. Vucenic is the sizable underdog in this fight, but a better grappler than his foe. He’s won four straight fights, all by way of submission. Additionally, this weekend’s contest will be his UFC debut as he’s making it on less than two weeks’ notice. 

Kavtaradze made his UFC debut four years ago and has gone 1-2 since then. He beat Gamrot via decision in his debut, but has dropped two fights in a row. His last contest was 13 months ago where he lost via 3^rd round TKO to Elves Brener. Seven of his 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO.

I always give credit to fighters who take fights on short notice. But it’s also hard to determine who’s going to win. With this matchup, the odds favor the Over 2.5 rounds (-185) and to go the distance (-160).

Vucenic has never been stopped in his pro career. I see Kavtaradze fighting from a distance and avoiding the takedowns to win on points. He will land more strikes and stuff more takedowns than allowed. 

Bet: Guram Kavtaradze (-205), Over 2.5 Rounds (-185), Fight Goes The Distance (-160)

Shamil Gaziev (-205) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+175)

Shamil Gaziev (12-1) and Don’Tale Mayes (11-6, 1 NC) is the only heavyweight fight on the night. 

Mayes is 4-4 with 1NC in the UFC. He last fought in April and beat Caio Machado via decision. His most notable octagon victory came in June 2023, where he beat Andrei Arlovski via 2^nd round TKO. 

Gaziev earned his UFC opportunity with a DWCS win over Greg Velasco via 1^st round submission in September 2023. He started off his UFC tenure with a 2^nd round TKO win over Martin Buday in December 2023. Unfortunately, the good times stopped when he lost in March of this year via 4^th round TKO against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. 

Mayes isn’t on the level of Rozenstruik. However, he also has only one TKO/KO loss in his career. In this battle of strikers, I like for it to go Over 2.5 rounds (+130) and the full distance (+160). I don’t see either man getting stopped. The odds do favor that a stoppage happens, so keep that in the back of your mind when placing a wager on this contest. 

As for the winner, I like Gaziev to pick up the decision victory by landing more significant strikes and being more proficient in his striking plan. 

Bet: Shamil Gaziev (-205)

Mohammed Yahya (+300) vs. Kaue Fernandes (-400)

Both Mohammed Yahya (12-4) and Kaue Fernandes (8-2) come into this lightweight bout needing a win. Additionally, both were unsuccessful in their UFC debuts. 

Yahya is the hometown fighter in this one and rode a five-fight winning streak into the UFC last year. Unfortunately, he dropped his debut to Trevor Peek via decision in October 2023. 

Fernandes is 2-2 in his last four bouts. He won two fights in a row before dropping his UFC debut to Marc Diakiese via split decision. Some pundits actually had him winning that fight. 

It’s entirely possible that we see someone getting put to sleep in this matchup. I think the odds are out of touch with this fight as Yahya is better than a +300 moneyline. In fact, he is one of the top underdog picks for this card. 

If this is a straight striking contest, the edge goes to Fernandes. However, I’m siding with Yahya to rally to victory with his fellow countrymen cheering him on. Look for Yahya to mix in takedowns and throw off his opponent’s striking attack. 

We could see an upset finish, but I’m siding with a decision win for the underdog despite what the odds say. This is a high-risk wager, so make it a small flier.

Bet: Mohammed Yahya (+300)

Alonzo Menifield (+165) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-190)

Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1) will battle Azamat Murzakanov (13-0) in a light heavyweight, featured bout of the prelims. 

Menifield recently saw a five-fight unbeaten streak come to an end when he lost to Carlos Ulberg via 1^st round KO in March. That fight lasted just 12 seconds. Prior to the loss, Menifield was 4-0-1 with three stoppage victories. 

Murzakanov is 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Dustin Jacoby, Devin Clark, and Tafon Nchukwi. He last competed in April 2023, and beat Jacoby via decision. That win snapped a four-fight streak of finishing his opponents via TKO/KO. 

The bout is set with an O/U of 1.5 rounds and the Over is favored at -145 odds. The bout is also favored to end inside the distance at -200 odds. I like this latter prop bet more because these two men have only gone the distance in eight of their 33 total fights. 

The O/U is tricky due to the knockout power of both fighters. I would avoid this one for now. With that said, I like Murzakanov to get the TKO/KO victory. I think he’s the better striker of the two and I’m off the Menifield bandwagon after his last bout. 

Bet: Azamat Murzakanov (-190)

UFC on ABC 7 Full Fight Card