UFC on ESPN 59 Odds, Predictions and Full Card

On Saturday, July 13, the UFC will be live from the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, for UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez. Also known as UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez and UFC Fight Night Denver, this card features a ranked women’s flyweight fight between #11 Tracy Cortez and #6 Rose Namajunas.

In total, UFC on ESPN 59 has 11 bouts scheduled for Saturday’s event. However, with a few late additions to the lineup, there could be more changes between now and fight time.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC on ESPN 59 odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our UFC Fight Night Denver predictions.

UFC on ESPN 59 Odds

The following UFC on ESPN 59 odds are for the main card only:

UFC on ESPN 59 Main Card Predictions

The following UFC on ESPN 59 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 7pm ET live on ESPN+ and ESPN. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog, while all fighter measurements are courtesy of UFC’s official site:  

Cody Brundage (+140) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (-160)

This middleweight bout features two fighters in Cody Brundage (10-6) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6) who are looking to bounce back from recent losses.

Brundage last fought in April and lost via 2^nd round submission to Bo Nickal. The defeat snapped a two-fight winning streak. Brundage is now 4-5 inside the octagon with three of those losses coming via stoppage.

Alhassan has been with the UFC for roughly eight years and has a 6-6 record inside the octagon. He last fought in October 2023, and lost via submission to Joe Pyfer. Prior to that loss, Alhassan beat Claudio Ribeiro via 2^nd round KO.

Alhassan is favored in this bout as he has the striking advantage. However, Brundage is the better grappler with more takedowns and submissions than his opponent. Clearly, his chances of winning will come from grappling, while Alhassan’s chances of winning will be from striking.

I like Brundage in this matchup. I think Alhassan’s best days are long behind him. Sure, he can end this fight with a well-timed combo, but I think Brundage gets a few takedowns and eventually finds the stoppage either via submission or TKO.

UFC Bets: Cody Brundage (+140), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-400)

Christian Rodriguez (-215) vs. Julian Erosa (+185)

This flyweight contest is a tale of two fighters at different stages of their careers. Christian Rodriguez (11-1) has yet to reach his fight-prime, while Julian Erosa (29-11) is a bit long in the tooth and on the downside of his peak years.

Erosa has had two stints in the UFC and is 7-7 in 14 octagon appearances. Erosa won his last bout in March 2024, via 1^st round submission against Ricardo Ramos. That win snapped a two-fight losing streak against Alex Caceres and Fernando Padilla. Both losses were via TKO.

Rodriguez’s lone career loss was in his UFC debut in February 2022. And he lost that bout via decision. Since then, he’s won four straight fights. His most recent bout came in March where he won via split decision over Isaac Dulgarian. Erosa questions that victory and claims that Rodriguez lost that bout, but the judges gave him the win.

The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds with the Over (-165) favored. This bout is also favored to go the full three rounds (-135). As long as Rodriguez doesn’t get caught in a compromising position on the mat, or making a foolish error in grappling exchanges, I see the younger fighter picking up a decision victory.

Four of his last five bouts have gone the distance including three in a row. Prior to his last three bouts, Erosa went the distance in two fights. Rodriguez has a strong enough takedown defense to avoid being dragged to the mat, too frequently, and getting choked out. Erosa does have a questionable chin. So, if this bout ends inside the distance, it will be due to a TKO/KO from Rodriguez. With that said, I’m giving Erosa credit enough to last three rounds.

UFC Bets: Christian Rodriguez (-215), Over 2.5 Rounds (-165)

Gabriel Bonfim (-330) vs. Ange Loosa (+255)

This welterweight main-card fight sees Gabriel Bonfim (15-1) take on Ange Loosa (10-3), with each man looking to get closer to the division’s Top 15 rankings. Neither man has a significant height or reach advantage.

Loosa made his UFC debut in April 2022, and lost via decision to Mounir Lazzes. He bounced back with two decision wins over A.J. Fletcher and Rhys McKee. Loosa’s most recent contest came in March where it ended as a No Contest against Bryan Battle due to an accidental eye poke.

Bonfim suffered his first professional loss in his last bout, which was against Nicolas Dalby last November. Dalby picked up a 2^nd round TKO win in that contest. The loss dropped Bonfim to 2-1 in the UFC.

In all honesty, this fight feels like the UFC trying to get Bonfim back on track and into the welterweight rankings. At 15-0, prior to the Dalby loss, the Brazilian was a fast-rising prospect. This weekend, we’ll see if Bonfim is truly a rising prospect or just overhyped.

For me, I think Bonfim gets back on track with a statement victory. He’s never gone the distance, so I don’t see this fight going to the judges (-260). However, I do believe it will go Over 1.5 rounds (-170) as these two men feel each other out for most of the opening frame.

Bonfim averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a 71% takedown accuracy. Despite Loosa’s previous success in takedown defense, I see Bonfim getting the better of him. Eventually, the Brazilian will lock in a submission hold and pick up the stoppage victory. 12 of his 15 pro wins have come via submission including his last four victories, which two of those were in the UFC.

UFC Bets: Gabriel Bonfim (-330), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-260), Bonfim Wins Via Submission (-110)

Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva (-110)

The lightweight bout between Drew Dober (27-13) and Jean Silva (13-2) is one of two fights where the combatants have the same odds. In other words, oddsmakers can’t decide who will win this contest as it was just booked last week with Silva stepping in for Mike Davis who withdrew due to an injury.

With that said, the odds do favor the bout ending inside the distance (-300) and Over 1.5 rounds (-120). Combined, these two men have 32 victories by stoppage.

Silva just fought two weeks ago at UFC 303 and defeated Charles Jourdain via 2^nd round knockout. The victory extended his winning streak to 10 fights in a row and 2-0 in the UFC. Both trips inside the octagon ended with Silva picking up the TKO/KO win.

Dober is a long-time UFC veteran with 22 trips into the octagon where he’s 13-9 in those fights. He last competed in February and lost via decision to Renato Carneiro. Dober is 4-4 in his last eight UFC fights and is pretty much a gatekeeper at this point. He’s eight years older than his counterpart and hasn’t really been a title contender for the last several years.

With the quick turnaround for Silva, and the high elevation of competing in Denver, he could run into some issues if this bout goes to the latter portions of the scheduled three rounds. Dober trains in Denver and will have the cardio advantage.

I’m taking a “what have you done for me lately” approach to this fight and going with Silva. He has been far more impressive than Dober as of late. And his knockout of Jourdain really showed that the Brazilian has the potential to move up in the rankings.

I think both men will be eager to engage in a firefight from the opening moments of the contest. With that in mind, I like Silva to pick up the TKO/KO victory. Obviously, the sooner, the better for Silva as Dober’s chances for victory will increase as the fight goes on.

You could play it safe and take a decision win by Dober, but I’m going to be more aggressive and side with Silva via TKO/KO. For his career, Silva has 10 TKO/KO victories including four of his last five fights. Dober does have six losses via stoppage including two via TKO/KO.

UFC Bets: Jean Silva (-110), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-300), Silva Wins Via TKO/KO (+185)

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-195) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+170)

A clash of near-40-year-olds will be the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 59 as Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7) takes on Muslim Salikhov (19-5). Ironically, this fight was originally scheduled for January 2021, but Covid and other bouts delayed it for 3.5 years.

Ponzinibbio has the slight height and reach advantages, along with being two years younger than his opponent. Since returning from a three-year layoff in 2021, due to a life-threatening infection, Ponzinibbio has gone 2-4 inside the octagon. He’s dropped three of his last four bouts including his most recent appearance which was in April 2023, where he lost via 3^rd round KO to Kevin Holland.

Ponzinibbio’s most recent win came in December 2022, when he defeated Alex Morono via 3^rd round TKO.

Salikhov has also dropped three of his last four bouts including his most recent fight, which came in February and he lost via 1^st round KO to Randy Brown. Prior to that, he lost to Nicolas Dalby via decision and Jingliang Li via 2^nd round TKO. His lone victory over that span was a 3^rd round TKO against Andre Fialho in November 2022.

This bout is favored to go Over 1.5 rounds (-210), but to end inside the distance (-150). Either fighter winning via TKO/KO is tabbed as the favored fight outcome with -145 odds. Combined, these two men have 29 TKO/KO victories and six TKO/KO losses in 60 total professional fights. In fact, these two combatants have combined for 20 first round TKO/KO finishes.

Ponzinibbio does have a three-inch reach advantage, is coming off a long hiatus, and is the slightly better fighter in this matchup. He lands more strikes per minute than Salikhov, but absorbs more as well. I think the smart bet for this contest is for the fight to end inside the distance (-150). I just don’t see these aging fighters surviving a striking fest for three full rounds.

I think the UFC odds are skewed in Ponzinibbio’s favor, but Salikhov is a live dog in this fight. With that said, if you don’t want to take a risk then go with Ponzinibbio to pick up the victory and make one last run towards the rankings.

UFC Bets: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-195), Over 1.5 Rounds (-210), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-145)

Tracy Cortez (+180) vs. Rose Namajunas (-210)

This bout was originally scheduled for Rose Namajunas (12-6) to take on #4 ranked Maycee Barber. Unfortunately, the latter had to withdraw due to an ongoing medical issue and Tracy Cortez (11-1) agreed to fill in on roughly two weeks’ notice. The main event of the evening will also be contested in the flyweight division.

Namajunas is a former two-time strawweight champion, but decided to move up in weight. Although she lost to Manon Fiorot via decision in her flyweight debut, “Thug” was able to bounce back in March and beat Amanda Ribas via decision. The win snapped a two-fight losing streak. Namajunas is 10-5 in the octagon and aims to move up the rankings to challenge for the flyweight title later this year or early next year.

Tracy Cortez has won 11 straight fights after dropping her pro debut in August 2017. She competed on DWCS in July 2019, and earned a shot in the UFC. Since then, Cortez has gone 5-0 inside the octagon and most recently competed 10 months ago where she defeated Jasmine Jasudavicius via decision.

Cortez is as gritty as they come. However, she does have a few holes in her fight game that I think Namajunas can exploit. As we all know by now, Rose is one of the top female fighters in the UFC no matter what weight class she’s in.

With that said, I do believe Cortez makes this an entertaining bout and picks up the “moral” victory. However, Namajunas will pick up the actual victory and do so via decision. Nine of Namajunas’ 18 pro fights have gone the distance, including her last four bouts. Nine of Cortez’s 13 pro fights have gone the distance including seven in a row.

So, take this bout to go Over 4.5 rounds (-280) and the Full Distance (-250). Namajunas odds of winning via points is listed at -105 odds which is great value. Namajunas via Unanimous Decision is listed at +110 odds with Split decision being +600 odds for Thug. Both of those fight prop bets offer great value.

UFC Bets: Rose Namajunas (-210), Over 4.5 Rounds (-280), Fight Goes The Distance (-250), Namajunas via Unanimous Decision (+110)

UFC on ESPN 59 Preliminary Card Predictions

The following UFC on ESPN 59 predictions are for the Preliminary Card, which begins at 4pm ET live on ESPN+ and ESPN.  

Andre Petroski (-110) vs. Josh Fremd (-110)

As it stands right now, this middleweight clash between Andre Petroski (10-3) and Josh Fremd (11-5) should open up the UFC Fight Night event. It’s also a battle between two Pennsylvania fighters.

Fremd comes into this contest with a four-inch height and three-inch reach advantage. He’s 2-1 in his last three bouts and 2-3 since his octagon debut in April 2022. Fremd opened up his UFC tenure with three straight losses before snapping that streak in March 2023, with a 2^nd round submission win over Sedriques Dumas. He followed that up with a unanimous decision victory in August 2023, over Jamie Pickett.

Unfortunately, his winning streak was snapped when he lost via 2^nd round KO to Roman Kopylov in September 2023. That was also his last octagon appearance.

Petroski joined the UFC in the summer of 2023, and picked up five straight victories including notable wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Wellington Turman. That winning streak was snapped in October 2023, when he lost via 1^st round TKO to Michel Pereira. His last bout was in March and he lost via 2^nd round TKO to Jacob Malkoun.

This fight basically comes down to Petroski’s chin versus Fremd’s lack of grappling. Considering Fremd has yet to score a TKO/KO win in the UFC, I like Petroski’s chances of out-grappling his opponent and picking up the victory.

The Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds. I think this fight is going Over that mark. However, it should finish inside the distance (-215) as Petroski gets the stoppage via ground and pound or submission.

UFC Bets: Andre Petroski (-110), Over 1.5 rounds (-185)

Montel Jackson (-160) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (+140)

This bantamweight clash was a late addition to the card as the UFC booked it roughly a week out from fight night. And, there are some sources saying it will open up the UFC Fight Night Denver event instead of Petroski vs. Fremd.

Montel Jackson (13-2) is 7-2 in the UFC since earning a shot with the promotion after a DWCS victory in June 2018. He dropped his UFC debut to Ricky Simon before winning three in a row. A decision loss to Brett Johns snapped that streak. However, Jackson bounced back from the second loss of his career to put together a four-fight winning streak, which he carries into this weekend’s clash.

Jackson has not fought since a 1^st round KO victory over Rani Yahya in April 2023. It was the 7^th TKO/KO victory of his career. Both losses have come via decision.

Da’Mon Blackshear (14-6-1) is 2-2-1 in the UFC since joining the promotion two years ago. He last competed in August 2023, where he lost via decision to Mario Bautista. The loss snapped a two-fight winning streak with both ending via stoppage.

Both men are proficient in striking and grappling. With that in mind, I have to give the advantage to Jackson in this matchup. He has a 3.5-inch reach advantage, which I think will come into play as these two combatants aren’t afraid to stand and strike.

Jackson has the better striking defense and lands more significant strikes per fight. With that said, I see this bout going the distance. Blackshear has never been stopped, but has six losses via decision. 10 of his 21 pro fights have gone the distance. Seven of Jackson’s 15 pro fights have gone the distance including five of his last seven bouts.

This bout will go Over 2.5 rounds (-210) and the full distance (-180). I’m taking Jackson to win via unanimous decision as he lands a higher volume of strikes and more significant strikes than Blackshear.

UFC Bets: Montel Jackson (-160), Fight Goes The Distance (-180)

Luana Santos (-380) vs. Mariya Agapova (+315)

This women’s flyweight clash has the largest disparity of odds as Luana Santos (7-1) is the biggest betting favorite as she takes on the biggest underdog in Mariya Agapova (10-4).

Agapova has been very vocal over the last few months about a lack of fights. She hasn’t fought in almost two years since she lost to Gillian Robertson via 2^nd round submission in September 2022. Agapova enters this weekend’s clash on a two-fight losing streak and 2-3 inside the UFC.

Santos has won four straight contests since suffering the only loss of her career, which was a split decision defeat to Jena Bishop at LFC 135 two years ago. Since then, Santos has been on a tear that includes winning both of her UFC fights.

Santos debuted in the UFC about 11 months ago and beat Julian Miller via 1^st round TKO. She followed that up with a decision win over Stephanie Egger in December 2023.

I see Santos being able to out-strike or out-grapple Agapova as she’s the better overall fighter. I wouldn’t be surprised if this bout ends via TKO/KO, but I’m leaning towards Santos picking up the submission win. Three of her seven pro wins have come via submission.

Agapova has two submission losses, which came in her last two fights. Additionally, her 47% takedown defense is suspect. Although she has the ability to find a submission victory herself, I think Santos is a level above her in this fight game and the Brazilian will pick up the stoppage victory (-190).

UFC Bets: Luana Santos (-380), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-190)

Joshua Van (-210) vs. Charles Johnson (+180)

Like with Jackson vs. Blackshear, this flyweight fight between Joshua Van (10-1) and Charles Johnson (15-6) was a late addition to the UFC Fight Night lineup.

Johnson is a former LFA champ and joined the UFC a few years ago. He’s 3-4 inside the octagon, but enters this weekend’s clash having won two consecutive bouts via decision against Azat Maskum in February and Jake Hadley in May. Johnson is the bigger man in this fight with four-inch height and five-inch reach advantages.

Van rides an eight-fight winning streak into this weekend’s bout. His last three fights have been contested inside the octagon where he’s picked up two decision wins (Zhumagulov, Borjas) and a 2^nd round TKO victory against Felipe Bunes. The latter was his last bout, which came in January. Van has been involved in numerous bouts that have fallen through over the last several months due to injuries and rescheduling.

Van is a sizable betting favorite, and rightfully so. He can get the job done in the striking or grappling departments. With that said, Johnson has never been stopped in his pro career. So, I see this bout going the full distance (-300). 12 of Johnson’s 21 pro fights have gone the distance. All six of his pro losses have been via decision.

Although Van has eight stoppage victories in his rising career, he has picked up two decision wins in his last three bouts. I see a third decision win coming this weekend as these two men will put on an entertaining fight. Take Van to win via unanimous decision (+120).

UFC Bets: Joshua Van (-210), Fight Goes The Distance (-300), Van Wins Via Points (+100)

Fatima Kline (-125) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+105)

This women’s flyweight bout features the unbeaten Fatima Kline (6-0) taking on the 15^th ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius (10-3). The latter was supposed to take on Viviane Araujo but she withdrew for undisclosed reasons. So, Kline fills in on two weeks’ notice.

Kline was one of the top female prospects not in the UFC. She was a dual titleholder for CFFC as the strawweight and flyweight divisions. She also went 4-0 with Invicta FC. Her last bout came in February where she won via decision in CFFC.

Initially, Kline was going to compete on DWCS in September, but the UFC decided to throw her into the fire instead. Kline is also the main training partner with UFC’s Ering Blanchfield. This bout will be contested at 125 pounds.

Jasudavicius earned her shot with the UFC after winning via decision over Julia Polastri on DWCS in September 2021. Since then, she’s gone 4-2 with the promotion and is 3-1 in her last four contests.

Jasudavicius’ loss over that span was via decision to Tracy Cortez who’s in the main event of this UFC show. Her last bout came in January where she defeated Priscila Cachoeira via 3^rd round submission with 39 seconds left in the fight.

The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds with the Over listed as a sizable -350 favorite. This bout should clear that mark and go the full distance (-325). Half of Kline’s six pro fights have gone the distance including three of her last four bouts. Jasudavicius has seen nine of her 13 pro fights go the distance with a 6-3 record in those contests.

I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from Kline. I believe that the UFC newcomer will pick up a decision victory (+140) in this bout and make a strong statement in her octagon debut. Big things are ahead for “The Archangel.”

UFC Bets: Fatima Kline (-125), Over 2.5 rounds (-350), Fight Goes The Distance (-325)

UFC on ESPN 59 Full Fight Card

Here’s the latest fight card for UFC on ESPN 59