North Carolina Tar Heels

The North Carolina Tar Heels were underdogs in nine of their 12 games in 2025 and won one, so a unit on them every time they were priced as the underdog lost 6.0. October showed the other side: three covers in four, with only one win.

One win as the underdog

North Carolina finished the regular season 4-8 and covered 5 of 12. The underdog record was 1-8. The win came 27-10 at Syracuse, at even money. In the eight underdog games with a moneyline, one unit a game lost 6.0 units; only ten FBS teams lost more as underdogs, out of 131 that were ever in that spot. Over all 11 priced games the loss was 5.55 units.

Close in October, gone in November

We would mark October on a Tar Heels chart. They went 1-3 that month and covered three of the four: 18-21 at California with 8.5 points, 16-17 to Virginia with 12.5, and the Syracuse win. November was the reverse: 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, ending 19-42 at NC State as a 7-point underdog. Only 15 FBS teams scored fewer than North Carolina’s 19.25 points a game.

Favored three times

UNC won all three games it was favored in and covered two: 20-3 at Charlotte and 41-6 over Richmond. The third, 20-15 over Stanford, fell short of an 8.5-point line. At home the Heels covered 2 of 6, and one unit a game on them there lost 3.66; only 11 FBS teams lost more at home.

The total

The Tar Heels’ games stayed under seven times, all four wins among them. Every one of the five overs was a North Carolina loss.

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