Patriots Odds and Betting Picks

Patriots History

The New England Patriots, founded in 1959 as the Boston Patriots, are one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. The team was a charter member of the American Football League (AFL) in 1960 and joined the NFL in 1970 during the AFL-NFL merger. Originally, the team struggled to find consistent success and moved from several stadiums in and around Boston before settling in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where they became the New England Patriots in 1971.

The Patriots’ first taste of major success came in 1985 when they reached Super Bowl XX but were defeated by the Chicago Bears. However, it wasn’t until Robert Kraft purchased the team in 1994 that the franchise’s fortunes truly changed. In 2000, Kraft hired Bill Belichick as head coach, a move that would define the team’s future.

Under Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, who was drafted in 2000, the Patriots became a dynasty in the 2000s and 2010s. They won their first Super Bowl in 2001, defeating the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. This victory began a period of dominance, with the Patriots winning additional Super Bowls in 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The Belichick-Brady era is widely regarded as one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history.

The team is known for its “Do Your Job” culture, innovative strategies, and an ability to find success with a variety of players and schemes. The Patriots have also been at the center of several controversies, including the “Spygate” and “Deflategate” scandals, which garnered significant media attention but did not diminish their on-field success.

As of 2024, the Patriots have appeared in 11 Super Bowls, winning six, and they hold numerous records, including most Super Bowl appearances by a head coach (Belichick) and most Super Bowl wins by a quarterback (Brady). The franchise remains a symbol of sustained success in the NFL.

Patriots Timeline

• 1959: The Boston Patriots are founded as an original member of the American Football League (AFL).
• 1960: The Patriots play their first season as a charter member of the AFL.
• 1970: The Patriots join the NFL as part of the AFL-NFL merger.
• 1971: The team changes its name to the New England Patriots and moves to Foxborough, Massachusetts.
• 1985: The Patriots reach their first Super Bowl (Super Bowl XX) but lose to the Chicago Bears.
• 1994: Robert Kraft purchases the Patriots, beginning a new era of stability and success.
• 2000: Bill Belichick is hired as head coach, and Tom Brady is drafted in the sixth round.
• 2001: The Patriots win their first Super Bowl (Super Bowl XXXVI) by defeating the St. Louis Rams.
• 2003: The Patriots win their second Super Bowl (Super Bowl XXXVIII) against the Carolina Panthers.
• 2004: The Patriots win their third Super Bowl (Super Bowl XXXIX) against the Philadelphia Eagles.
• 2007: The Patriots complete an undefeated regular season (16-0) but lose in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.
• 2014: The Patriots win their fourth Super Bowl (Super Bowl XLIX) by defeating the Seattle Seahawks.
• 2016: The Patriots win their fifth Super Bowl (Super Bowl LI) in a historic comeback against the Atlanta Falcons.
• 2018: The Patriots win their sixth Super Bowl (Super Bowl LIII) by defeating the Los Angeles Rams.
• 2020: Tom Brady leaves the Patriots after 20 seasons, signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• 2023: The Patriots honor Tom Brady with a special ceremony at the season opener, marking his official retirement from the NFL.

New England Patriots 2024-25 Outlook

The outlook for the New England Patriots in the 2024-25 NFL season is not particularly optimistic. The team is entering a significant transition phase following the departure of long-time head coach Bill Belichick, with Jerod Mayo stepping in as the new head coach. This change marks the beginning of a new era, but the challenges ahead are considerable.

The Patriots are facing the NFL’s toughest schedule this season, which compounds the difficulties they already face with a roster that’s still trying to find its identity post-Tom Brady. The offense remains a major concern, particularly with a rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, expected to lead the team. The offensive line and receiving corps have not shown enough promise to suggest a significant turnaround from last year’s struggles.

Defensively, the team remains solid, though there are concerns about key players like Christian Barmore. The loss of Matthew Judon in a trade also signals that the Patriots might be leaning into a rebuilding phase, despite not openly admitting it.

Oddsmakers have set the Patriots’ win total at 4.5 games for the season, which is among the lowest in the NFL. With New England expected to be underdogs in every game, it’s likely going to be a tough year for the team and its fans

Patriots’ Record

The Patriots had an abysmal 4-13 record last season. Here’s a look at their full record:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2023/reg

New England Patriots Statistics

Take a look at the Patriots’ stats for this season, including player stats:

https://sportstats.nypost.com/football/nfl/teamstatistics/23

Patriots Injury Reports

Sometimes even the best players get injured. Don’t let an injury on the Patriots roster impact your betting. Here’s a link to our comprehensive Patriots injury and inactive list. 

Patriots Betting Outlook

From a betting perspective, the 2024-25 New England Patriots season presents several opportunities and challenges for bettors. Here’s what you can expect and which wagers to consider:

Win Total Bets:

The Patriots have the lowest win total projection in the NFL, set at 4.5 wins. Given their tough schedule and the significant transitions within the team, betting on the under is a popular choice. The Patriots are underdogs in all 17 games, and historical trends show that teams with such low win totals often stay under the set number​.

Game-by-Game Betting:

The Patriots are expected to be underdogs by +3.5 or more points in most of their games. Historically, teams with such lines have covered the spread at a decent rate. Bettors might consider taking the Patriots against the spread (ATS) when they are getting substantial points, especially in games where the defense can keep the score close​.

Given the Patriots’ low expectations, there could be value in fading the public when the team faces popular opponents, as lines might be inflated against them.

Futures Bets:

Here are two futures you should probably consider:

• Miss the Playoffs: The Patriots making the playoffs is highly unlikely, and betting on them to miss the playoffs could be a safer, though less lucrative, futures bet.
• Win Division: While extremely unlikely, this is a high-risk, high-reward bet for those who believe the Patriots might outperform expectations against all odds.

Prop Bets:

Given the strength of the Patriots’ defense, especially under Jerod Mayo, betting on defensive props like total team sacks or turnovers in individual games might offer value. Despite their overall struggles, the defense could still perform well, particularly against weaker offensive lines.

With rookie QB Drake Maye at the helm, betting on passing yardage props might lean towards the under in most games, especially early in the season as he adjusts to the NFL​.

Long Shots and Specials:

If things go south quickly, there might be speculation around coaching changes, even though Mayo is just starting. Some sportsbooks might offer odds on the first coach fired, and while Mayo might not be the favorite, a disastrous start could lead to speculation.

Look for opportunities to bet on team totals under in games, particularly if the Patriots face strong defenses or if they continue to struggle offensively.

2023-24 Betting Trends for the Patriots

Here are the top three betting trends from last season:

Poor Performance as an Underdog: The Patriots struggled significantly as underdogs during the 2023-24 season, especially against the spread (ATS). They had a 2-8 record ATS when getting points, reflecting their inability to keep games close when not favored​. Bettors who faded the Patriots when they were underdogs generally profited, as the team consistently failed to cover the spread in these situations.

Low-Scoring Games (Under Bets): The Patriots’ games frequently hit the under during the 2023-24 season. This trend was driven by their struggles on offense, combined with a defense that kept games relatively low-scoring. Betting the under on Patriots’ games was a profitable strategy, especially in matchups against teams with strong defenses or struggling offenses.

Home Field Disadvantage: The Patriots failed to defend their home turf effectively, going 3-5 straight up (SU) and ATS at home. Gillette Stadium, once a fortress, became a less intimidating place for opponents during the 2023-24 season​. Bettors who bet against the Patriots at home, particularly when the team was favored, found success as the team underperformed relative to expectations in Foxborough.

Patriots Schedule 2024

Make sure to tune in for each Patriots game this season:

New England Patriots Depth Chart

Here’s a full look at the Patriots’ roster this year:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29098001/nfl-depth-charts-all-32-teams

Key Patriots Players for Betting

This season, you should watch out for a few key players. Betting props on them might provide some value. These players are:

• Drake Maye
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Hunter Henry
• Christain Barmore
• JuJu Smith-Schuster

Drake Maye (Quarterback)

As a rookie, Maye will face a steep learning curve in the NFL. Bettors might find value in betting against his passing yardage props, particularly early in the season, as he adjusts to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses. Additionally, betting on interceptions or other negative props could be profitable if he struggles under pressure.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Running Back)

Stevenson is expected to be a workhorse back, which could make him a prime target for betting on over/under rushing yardage props. Given the Patriots’ likely focus on the running game to support their rookie quarterback, betting on Stevenson to exceed rushing yardage in favorable matchups, especially against weaker run defenses, could be profitable.

Hunter Henry (Tight End)

With a rookie quarterback, tight ends often become a security blanket. Henry could see an uptick in targets, especially in red zone situations. Bettors might consider betting on anytime touchdown scorer props or over on receptions/yards props in games where Maye might need to rely on short, safe passes​.

Christian Barmore (Defensive Tackle)

Barmore is a key player in the Patriots’ defense, particularly in stopping the run. Bettors could look at betting on the under for opposing teams’ rushing yardage props when the Patriots are facing run-heavy offenses. Additionally, Barmore’s presence might make the Patriots’ defensive props (like sacks or tackles for loss) attractive, especially against weaker offensive lines.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Wide Receiver)

Smith-Schuster’s role as the primary receiver means he could be a focal point of the offense. Bettors might find value in his receiving yardage and reception props, especially in games where the Patriots are likely to be trailing and need to pass frequently. However, with a rookie quarterback, it’s also worth considering betting on the under in tougher matchups against strong secondaries.

Stay Up to Date on All the Patriots News

NFL season is our favorite time of year, and we cover news for every team over on our blog. Our handicappers are also hard at work planning picks for you each week of the regular season. 

New England Patriots Summary

In the upcoming season, bettors should approach the Patriots with a cautious and strategic mindset, focusing on under bets and looking for value in individual game spreads where they might be heavily underestimated. The season is likely to be challenging, but there could be opportunities in fading the public and betting on defensive performance.

If you’re looking to elevate your betting, be sure to check out ScoresandStats.com’s premium handicapping service. Our sports betting experts are always rolling out great picks for the Patriots and other teams, and their insight can help you make money as a bettor.